Daily Mail, 17 February 2012

Yesterday the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest statistics on pension trends in the labour market. The Daily Mail this morning picked up on one aspect of the figures in particular - that one in eight women works past the age of 70.

The Mail claimed that Britian was in a 'retirement revolution' as the State Pension Age (SPA) for women starts to rise. The Pensions Act 2011 will raise the SPA for women to 65 between 2016 and 2018.

But are the Mail's claims accurate?

Analysis

The statistical release from the ONS data summarises the findings of the latest survey. However it became clear that there were a number of different measurements used in assessing the economic status of older individuals.

The method seemingly adopted by the Mail was to take the proportion of working women 'leaving the labour market' after the age of 70. The labour market consists of people who are employed or unemployed, while those who are economically inactive are considered to be outside the labour market.

The data on when women in employment leave the labour market is provided in figure 4.11 of the release, and illustrated below:

The ONS acknowledge that this particular method lacks some robustness since it assumes, amongst other things, that no women leave the market before 51 or after 75. Hence this measure is stressed as an estimate and each of the ages listed are estimated probabilities of leaving the labour market.

12.5 per cent equates to one in eight so, according to this measure, approximately one in eight women who are in work leave the labour market between the ages of 70 and 75. The Mail interpreted this as one in eight women 'working past 70'.

However, there is another potential way of interpreting the Mail's headline. The statistics also provide figures on the economic activity status of older people in the UK for the same time period. The table provided on this measure is as follows:

This table looks at the entire population and assesses what proportion of men and women have different economic statuses at different age levels. Coincidentally, the proportion of women over the State Pension Age (SPA) in full or part-time employment totals 12.5 per cent - or one in eight. 

Figure 4.7 of the report provides the same information but with more age ranges provided:

This table confirms that 0.4 per cent of the over-70 female population were in full-time employment in April to June last year, and two per cent were employed part-time. In total, this table tells us that 2.4 per cent of women aged 70 or over are in employment with the latest available figures, or one in 42.

So one in eight women who have been in employment leave the labour market between the ages of 70 and 75. In other words, of the female working population, one in eight leaves work between the ages of 70 and 75.

At the same time, of the entire female population, only one in 42 over the age of 70 are actually in work. This is an understandably confusing state of affairs.

Conclusion

The ONS confirmed to Full Fact that figure 4.11, showing the proportion of women leaving the labour market at each age, refers to the population that has previously been in the labour market and then leaves. Meanwhile, the data from figures 4.6 and 4.7 shows the proportion of the entire female population who are in work at a given time.

So the claim that "one in eight women works past 70" is in fact ambiguous.

On one interpretation, this means that one in eight women over the age of 70 is in work. This would be wrong - as only one in 42 women aged over 70 is in work.

On the other interpretation, it means that one in eight women who are already working continue to do so until they are between 70 and 75. This would be correct.

Both interpretations appear to be valid if the wording is strictly considered. How the Mail's readers would have understood the headline is another debate altogether.