Last month, Full Fact looked into the impact that the misreporting of crime statistics can have on public perceptions of levels of crime in Britain.

This morning the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the Crime and Justice chapter of its annual report on 'Social Trends' which looks at changes in public perception of crime using data from the British Crime Survey.

The ONS statistical release stated that the 'majority believed crime had gone up when it had actually gone down', suggesting that the gap between perceived crime and actual crime was significant.

But what do the figures show?

The graph below shows the percentage of people who perceived that national crime had risen in the previous few years (blue bars, left axis) against the number of crimes committed each year in millions, as recorded by the British Crime Survey (red line, right axis).

The trend over the period has been for a decrease in overall crime levels, but with slight increases every other year since 2005/06.

The percentage of people who have perceived a crime increase also fluctuates year on year. In the years in which actual crime increases, the percentage of people who think it has increased usually rises as well.

In the years in which crime falls, the percentage who perceive a crime increase also either decreases or remains stable. 

However even in the years when crime falls, there remains a large proportion (at least 60 per cent) of people who think that crime has increased. Regardless of what is happening to crime, the majority in each perceived it to be on the rise.

The British Crime Survey also looks into the reasons why people consistently maintain that crime is rising despite fluctuating figures.

They provide data that shows that 'newspaper readership was the strongest predictor of perceiving that the national crime rate had gone up. Those reading ‘broadsheet’ newspapers (such as The Guardian or The Independent) had lower odds of perceiving that the national crime rate had increased than those reading ‘popular’ newspapers (such as The Sun or The Daily Star).'

The report therefore seems to suggest that the type of media that people are exposed to may be an indicator as to the likelihood of them over-estimating levels of crime at a national level.

This is supported by a study published by Ipsos-Mori in 2008- which Full Fact has analysed before- which also looked at public perceptions of crime. It found that although it is difficult to ascertain whether the media follows or leads public opinion, 'there are strong indications that newspapers and broadcast media do have a great deal of direct impact'.

The report also suggests that women are more likely than men to perceive the rate of national crime had increased. Education also had statistical significance, with those educated to degree or diploma level less likely to perceive an increase.

Conclusion

Despite the fluctuations in the percentages year on year, there remains a large proportion of people who consistently believe that crime at a national level has increased on the previous few years. Therefore even when the percentage who perceive an increase falls with falling crime, at least 60 per cent still believe it has risen.

The apparent link between choice of newspaper and perception of crime, underlines the ability of media to influence peoples views of social trends – at least as far as the issue of crime is concerned.

As we have stated previously, this emphasises more than ever the need for consistently accurate reporting of crime statistics from the press.