Crime statistics: is David Cameron a repeat offender?
7 July, 2010 - 00:00 -- Owen Spottiswoode
The use – or misuse – of crime statistics by David Cameron and the then Shadow Home Secretary Chris Grayling was one of the bigger controversies of the election campaign, and was picked up not only by Full Fact, but also other fact-checkers and the mainstream media.
So it was disappointing today to hear the Prime Minister again using statistics that have consistently been shown to be misleading during Prime Minister’s Questions.
He claimed: “Violent crime and gun crime almost doubled under the previous government.”
This claim is based on research commissioned by The Conservatives from the House of Commons Library, which found that violent crime went up by 44%.
However owing to difficulties in combining the two different data sets used in the research, the UK Statistics Authority found that “to regard a comparison, without qualification, of police recorded statistics between the late 1990s and 2008/09 is likely to mislead the public.”
In a letter to Mr Grayling, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority Sir Michael Scholar said: “A more balanced commentary on national trends in violent crime would, in the view of the Authority also make reference to the estimates given in the British Crime Survey, which in our view provides a more reliable measure of the national trend over time.”
As you can see from the chart below, the British Crime Survey shows a very different trend, with violent crime apparently falling over the tenure of the last Labour Government:
The Conservatives defended their use of the disputed statistics by saying that they saw the figures recorded by police authorities as a more reliable indicator of crime levels than the British Crime Survey, which measures public opinion on crime. The problem with this approach is that such data hasn’t been historically collated, making it difficult to draw long-term trends.
Using DIY statistics is one thing when in opposition, but Full Fact would like to see closer attention paid to the provenance of the claims David Cameron makes as Prime Minister.
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