About 270,000 serial users of heroin and crack cocaine are estimated to be jobless and living on state handouts, according to the Whitehall statistics” reads the Daily Express front page story.

Confronted with these admittedly shocking numbers but no sign of where they came from, Full Fact decided to take a look.

According to academic research from a Working Paper published by the Department for Work and Pensions in 2008 “it is estimated that there are approximately 267,000 individuals accessing main benefits in England who are PDUs [Problem Drug Users], i.e. currently using drugs such as heroin or crack cocaine.”

The researchers used the results of a survey which asked drug addicts in treatment what benefits they were claiming.

They applied those proportions to the numbers of drug addicts estimated to exist by the national prevalence study of opiate and crack cocaine use, which in 2005/06 estimated the total number of problem drug users at 332,090, substantially similar to “the estimated 337,000 heroin and crack cocaine addicts” quoted by the Express.

This allowed them to produce an estimate of how many heroin and crack users claimed each type of benefit (Table 4.1) which added up to 266,798 users claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance, Income Support, Incapacity Benefit or Disability Living Allowance. The authors themselves use the 267,000 figure to avoid giving an unrealistic impression of the precision of their estimate.

They point out: “This corresponds to 6.6 per cent of the total number of working age individuals accessing those benefits.”

The caveat to this finding is pointed out by the authors. It depends on whether drug users in treatment claim benefits in the same proportion as drug users who are not in treatment programmes. As they fairly say: “This assumption cannot be tested; however, there is no available evidence to suggest that it is incorrect.”

So the 267,000 number is the best we have. It does, however, apply to the 2005/06 financial year. The profile of those claiming benefits, particularly job seekers’ allowance, will have changed considerably since the economic downturn.

It is also important to note, as recent answer to a Parliamentary Question made clear: “that drug dependency does not of itself confer entitlement to disability benefits. In the case of incapacity benefit and employment support allowance, this is determined by a person's capability or capacity for employment. For disability living allowance entitlement relies on the care and/or mobility needs arising from a particular condition. Where individuals with a substance dependency are in receipt of such benefits it will be because they have other diagnoses, for example mental illness.”

It is not clear, however, how the £1 billion headline figure was calculated. The Department for Work and Pensions have not been able to help so far.

£1 billion split between 267,000 problem drug users would amount to £72 per person per week, which certainly makes the sum seem plausible.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ invaluable archive of benefits rates shows, for example, that the standard rate for Incapacity Benefit in 2005/06 was £57.65.

However, if you take the total cost of each of the benefits covered by the research at 2005/06 levels, and apply the proportions found in the DWP research, then it may be that the amount spent on drug users in that year was much higher. So we will update this story if the Department can tell us what the appropriate methodology would be for producing a cost estimate.

Conclusion

The evidence that we can find suggests the Express story is well justified, at least as it applies to 2005/06. It also shows, once again, why the media need to show their sources in order to regain public trust.

The figures are based in solid research but the assumptions behind that research, while honestly made, could in the researchers' own account be seriously wrong.