Do 75% of Britons want to quit the EU?
“75% Say: 'Quit the EU now'”. Daily Express, 22 October 2011.
With MPs expected to defy the government whips this afternoon over proposals to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, the Daily Express this morning piled on the pressure by claiming that three quarters of Britons wanted out of the EU.
However Full Fact has in the past cast doubt over another Daily Express article about an EU opinion poll, which coincidentally also reported the same figure of 75 per cent of the population wanting to quit the EU. We've also found problems with claims that both Labour and the Conservatives have made on the back of opinion polls.
So, do 75 per cent of the population really want out of the EU now? Full Fact took a look.
Analysis
The Express' analysis, based on a YouGov poll for the Vote UK Out of EU campaign, has already been criticised by Tabloid Watch.
Immediately after reading the first sentence of the article, the original claim in the headline becomes muddied. The misleading headline argues that some 75 per cent wanted to quit the EU, but actually includes those who would vote to “renegotiate the terms” of the EU rather than simply those who 'want out'.
In fact, further down the article it emerges that this group actually represent a far greater proportion of those polled than those who wanted to leave the EU. In the event of a referendum, 47 per cent would vote to renegotiate the membership terms while only 28 per cent would vote to leave the EU.
This therefore generates a very different picture of public opinion regarding the EU, showing that many would prefer to change the current relationship rather than leaving the EU altogether. Just 15 per cent would vote to keep things as they are.
Moreover, the article reports that when given the 'either/or' option of quitting or staying in the EU, some 52 per cent said they would want to quit while 31 per cent would stay in, with the rest unsure.
So on the strength of these findings, 52 per cent would vote to quit the EU, not the 75 per cent originally reported.
Conclusion
While it would be fair to assume that 75 per cent had expressed some scepticism of the EU by indicating in this poll that they would either vote to leave the EU or to renegotiate the terms of our membership, it isn't true that three quarters support withdrawal.
In fact, when the terms of the referendum are reduced to a simple 'in/out' choice, just over half would vote to leave.
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