“Hospital waiting times in England are at their longest for three years, an independent health think tank says. The King's Fund says statistics for February show 15 per cent of patients waited over 18 weeks for treatment, the longest time since April 2008.

"But the government says these figures included some patients who delayed their own treatment and insists the real figure is 10.2 per cent.”

BBC News, 20 April, 2011

Since the government scrapped NHS waiting time targets last year, and with the health service seeking £20 billion in efficiency savings, there has been increased media and public attention on hospital waiting times.

In a report out today from healthcare think tank The King's Fund it is claimed that the figures for February 2011 show the percentage of inpatients waiting more than 18 weeks from referral to treatment is on the rise.

The report says that the current level of close to 15 per cent is the highest it has been for almost to three years.

The Government has challenged the figure, saying that the 15 per cent level is not completely representative of the situation as it does not take into account delays as a result of patients cancelling appointments and re-organising them for later dates.

Instead, the Government has pointed to the adjusted, and lower, figure of 10.2 per cent waiting more than 18 weeks in February, which excludes “periods of delay introduced as a result of patients turning down offers of admissions made with reasonable notice”.

But how does the use of this adjusted figure impact on the claim that the proportion of inpatients waiting more than 18 weeks for treatment is at a three year high?

Both the adjusted and non-adjusted statistics are published monthly, and can be accessed from the Department of Health.

Looking at the adjusted figures over the same period as the adjusted figures preferred by the Government shows the following trend.

While showing an overall lower percentage of people waiting more than 18 weeks from referral, the figures still show a recent rise in waiting times. The February figure of 10.2 per cent is the highest since June 2008 (several months less than the non-adjusted comparison to April 2008).

Conclusion

It would seem fair for the government to point towards the adjusted figures for waiting times, as they take consideration for time due to patients re-arranging their initial appointments.

However, even if the figures are considered from an adjusted perspective, it is still the case that waiting times from referral to treatment for inpatients are at their highest levels since 2008, with a few months difference to the non-adjusted data.

But what to make of this trend? On the Today programme this morning, Nigel Edwards of the NHS Confederation said trend may be "a little blip" but equally could constitute a warning sign of a further rise in waiting times.

However, on the same programme, David Flory Deputy Chief Executive of the NHS said: “The overall waiting times continue to be very low by historical standards, this report shows that they have remained broadly stable over a long period of time... we do see fluctuations.”

He also pointed to high levels of patients with severe flu over the winter taking up hospital beds, meaning that other regular procedures had to be delayed.  

So while the rise shown in recent figures is not in dispute, arguments will continue over its significance.