The Home Secretary Theresa May has outlined to Parliament details of a temporary cap on non-EU immigration, as the coalition moves to implement the policy pledge of an annual migration limit.

However how many people will the policy actually apply to?

The Claim

Quizzed on this morning's Today Programme it was put to Ms May that the number of non-EU workers actually affected by the cap is only a tiny percentage of total immigration.

This morning’s Financial Times accuses Ms May of “fiddling at the edges”, claiming non-EU workers account “for just five per cent of total immigration.”

Responding to this point on this morning’sToday Programme, Ms May insisted that according to the latest figures, non-EU migration accounted for a far higher percentage of total immigration.

“On the latest set of figures the majority of people were non-EU, non British. Just over 52 per cent were non-EU, non-British,” she said.

So who is right?

Analysis

Turning first to Ms May’s numbers it can be seen that in the figure she used was accurate.

The most recent figures available for immigration classified by citizenship show that of the 590,000 people who came to the UK in 2008, 307,000 or 52 per cent were from outside the EU. 

But while the figure Ms May uses was correct, this is not the full story for this particular dispute. 

Firstly, there is the question of how many of these people coming from outside the EU were economic migrants. Secondly, which year do the figures used refer to?

The FT refers to the number of non-EU workers, while Ms May is talking about people coming to the UK from outside the EU for a range of purposes, including work.

Net vs Economic migration

While there may have been net migration of 307,000 to the UK by non-EU nationals, not all of these would be economic migrants, which is what the cap announced today, and any future potential limits are likely to be aimed at.

The cap proposed today would cover non-EU migrants coming in under tier one and tier two of the previous Government’s points-based system (PBS), which cover skilled and highly skilled migrants.

Home Office figures show that 74,630 such migrants came to the UK in 2008. Comparing this number to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figure of 590,000 total inward migrations, skilled and highly skilled migrants accounted for 12.6 per cent of total immigration.

So where did the FT get the five per cent figure from?

The first problem when comparing the newspaper’s claim to the one made by Ms May is that the Home Secretary is basing her figure on 2008 data, while the FT appears to be using numbers from 2009.

Last year’s figures show that the number of entrants to the UK under tier one and tier two of the system was 55,270. The ONS data for 2009 only covers the year to September 2009, for which inward migration was 505,000.

Though not strictly comparing like with like, this suggests those affected by the cap account for roughly 11 per cent of total immigration – still more than the FT’s five per cent.

Calculating the figures

The closest figure to five per cent of total migration is the number of people actually affected by today’s cap.

This temporary limit only applies to certain routes of entry within tiers one and two, so does not include workers such as those employed by a foreign company who are transferred to the UK. 

The Home Office suggests that its cap will cut the numbers of people in the affected parts of the points based system by 1,300 or five per cent. This means it applies to the type of migrants who accounted for 26,000 of total tier one and tier two migration.

Taking the figure of 505,000 for inward migration, the people affected by the temporary cap therefore appears to be five per cent of the total.

However the numbers behind this calculation do not apply to a full year so the comparison is not a fair one.

Likewise, the FT’s point that non-EU migration accounts for five per cent of total migration does not appear to stack up, since these numbers do not cover all non-EU economic migration.

An expert opinion

We spoke to Sarah Mulley, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Public Policy Research, who told us that the figure of 10 per cent was a more accurate estimation of the proportion of immigrants who would be affected by the final cap the Government brings in.

“Of roughly the half a million who came [to the UK] about 55,000 were coming through the parts of the points based system which will be affected by cap so it’s about 10 per cent of the total inflow which will be affected,” she said.

She suggested the FT’s coverage may have been referring to the number of people affected by the current cap, rather than those potentially affected by a future cap.

“Their five per cent figure is probably right if they are talking about the people the cap affects because the cap that has been announced today, as opposed to the one that will be set in April, doesn’t  apply to all tier one and tier two migrants,” she said.

Conclusion

The competing claims surrounding the Government’s temporary immigration cap seem to be based on apples and pears-style comparisons.

Theresa May’s claim is accurate, but relates to 2008 data when she was refuting statements sourced from 2009 data.

Likewise she talks about total immigration rather than economic migration.

However the numbers from the FT appear to be too low. This analysis suggests that non-EU economic migrants accounted for closer to 11 per cent of total migration. 

Such a figure appears to suggest that when the Government introduces an annual cap next April it will affect a smaller proportion of those coming to the UK than the figures cited by the Home Secretary this morning would suggest.

We put this point to the Home Office, and a spokesperson dismissed the claims that the cap would affect such a small proportion as “speculation.”

“All we’re talking about today is the interim cap and which is to stop a flood of applications before the final cap comes in,” she said.

“That will cover more migrants, but for the moment it is what it is.”

Patrick Casey