Immigration is, once again, on the rise, or so today’s media reports suggest.

Just last week we were told that long term net migration to the UK was down 9 per cent year on year, in what was deemed a vindication  of the previous Government’s points-based system.

Yet today we are told the points based system has led to a 20 per cent increases in the number of immigrants.

Campaign Group MigrationWatch have published some statistics suggesting this, but already they have proved contentious with some commentators. So just what is going on?

The Claim

The MigrationWatch press release, picked up by national papers such as the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph, claims:

“Analysis of the latest immigration statistics by think-tank Migrationwatch has revealed what Labour were anxious to conceal during the election campaign, namely that their so called "tough" Points Based System (PBS) has actually led to an increase in immigration.”

So has the points based system seen a rise in immigration?

Analysis

The initial point that there has been an increase in ‘immigration’ as a blanket term does not appear to be accurate.

Not only are there the ONS statistics showing falling immigration, but looking at the Home Office figures used by MigrationWatch, the number of people, including dependents, granted entry visas, in 2007 before the introduction of the Points Based System (PBS) was 2,072,430 but in 2009 this fell to 1,995,840.

Dealing with the figures specifically relating to Tier 1 (Highly Skilled workers) and Tier 2 (Skilled workers) of the points-based system, the debate becomes more contentious.

While the statistics highlighted by MigrationWatch actually show the total number of people coming into the UK as Tier 1 and 2 workers falling from 78,410, to 55,275 between 2007 and 2009.

Yet added to this are the Tier 1 and 2 workers granted permission to remain and work who were already in the UK, along with others work permit grants outside of the PBS.

It is this combined figure that gives the headline figure of a 20% rise from 122,095, to 148,635.

Writing on the Left Foot Forward blog, Sarah Mulley of Institute for Public Policy Research has disputed the inclusion of those already in the UK as ‘immigrants’ and suggesting counting immigration in this way could be distorted by changes in rules on visas.

Full Fact put these criticisms to MigrationWatch, and the organisation’s Chairman, Sir Andrew Green, defended the way the figures had been added up.

He said: “These workers would otherwise have gone away again. The total new permissions and extensions gives you a fair measure of the flow of migrants into the UK

“So we are looking at what happened under the work permit system and also in 2009 when the changes to that system had been complete. It’s perfectly clear.

“The number of extensions doubled under the new system. Surely this must be relevant?”

When we put these points to the Home Office we were told that the method used by MigrationWatch could, for example, count people who entered the UK on student visas, but once in the UK were subsequently granted leave to remain on work grounds.

However a spokesman stressed that the method used by the group was not used by the Home Office due to the potential for double counting.

He said: “If someone came in 2007 as a main applicant they may have extended their leave in 2008 so there may be a little bit of double counting in there.

“That’s not the way we publish the figures. We publish them separately and they [MigrationWatch] have  chosen to add them together.”

But are there another set of figures that support Sir Andrew’s case?

Last week’s statistics from the ONS while showing the aforementioned 9 per cent immigration drop, also showed that non-EU migrants receiving employment related grants of settlement had risen by 45 per cent from the end of March 2009 to the end of March 2010.

Yet the Home Office again explained that this did not necessarily mean there had been a surge in immigration since the introduction of the PBS.

The figures, we were told, would include people who came to the UK five or more years ago who would now be in a position to apply for indefinite leave to remain in the UK (ILR).

“One of the reasons it [the number of grants] has gone up in 2008, 2009, and 2010 is there were people who had come to the UK and they reached the point where they were able to apply for settlement ILR.

“Once you apply for ILR, it takes 12 month for you to apply for citizenship, and citizenship has also gone up,” a spokesman said.

Conclusion

While the figures used by MigrationWatch and subsequently reported in the media are accurate, they do not necessarily demonstrate a rise in ‘immigration’ since the PBS was introduced.

What they do show is rise in the number of people gaining permission to settle in the UK on work grounds. But, as set out, some of these people could have actually been in the UK for a number of years.

It is such nuances that can often be overlooked in media coverage of immigration.

One immigration expert told us off the record that while figures used in the immigration debate were often accurate, there was at times danger of reaching “simplistic conclusions”

“We could look at the number of people coming in, but that’s only half the story. A large number of people who come here don’t stay, they then go away again.

“When people talk about migration people assume migrants are going to come here and are going to live here and have kids and grow old and die here – that’s not necessarily the case,” he said.

It appears that claims on immigration can be statistically accurate, yet problems can potentially arise when there is a lack of precision in the way the figures are portrayed.

Patrick Casey