Public spending: are we returning to 2006, '07 or '08?
Background
As the implications of the Comprehensive Spending Review dominate political discussion, some have attempted to bring perspective to George Osborne's £83 billion of cuts by placing them in the context of data for previous annual spending.
Public spending has consistently risen year-on-year for the last decade. How much of this increase will be reversed by measures announced in the CSR?
The claims:
Full Fact spotted three claims from high profile sources.
“This Government will be spending more than £700bn on public services - the same as in 2006.” - Nick Clegg in his letter to Lib Dem members this morning.
This agrees with an item on last night's BBC News at 10:
But in his speech today, the Chancellor himself seemed to disagree:
“In real terms, public spending will be at the same level as in 2008”
Analysis
What is going on here? For once, there is a simple answer.
Neither the Chancellor nor the Deputy PM specified exactly what they were measuring, but the spending document is more precise: “public spending as a percentage of GDP will return to the level seen in 2006-07,” it explains, “and in real terms will retrun to the level seen in 2008-09.”
If we accept official projections for inflation and interest, both of these claims check out.
So, depending on what you are measuring, none of the preceding claims are wrong.
Mild censure is due to Mr Clegg for meshing the two valid figures into a single, slightly confused claim.
While he is right that spending will top £700 billion, and that as a level of GDP this will be similar to 2006, the implication that the Government spent over £700 billion in 2006 is false.
And perhaps he was not quite right in treating these numbers as “spending on public services”.
After all, they include public spending on a national debt that has increased substantially since 2006 – so a proportion of this money will be spent servicing the debt rather than the public.
Conclusion
The wording of Mr Clegg's claim, then, makes it slightly inaccurate.
But these qualifications aside, it is fair to equate predicted spending in 2014-15 with either 2006 or 2008 levels.
Edgar Gerrard Hughes
Comment is free but facts are expensive!
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