Women's unemployment: is it rising or falling?
“50,000 more women are in work than were at the time of the last election”, David Cameron
“Women’s unemployment is at its highest level since 1988”, Ed Miliband, Prime Minister’s Questions, 12 October 2011
While both David Cameron and Ed Miliband agreed that this morning’s figures were “disappointing”, the two party leaders came to blows over whether women were particularly struggling to find work in the current economic climate.
While the Prime Minister maintained that some 50,000 more women were in work than when he took office, his Labour opposite number claimed that female unemployment was at a 23 year high.
So who is right?
Analysis
Turning first to Mr Cameron's, we can see by comparing the Labour Market Statistical Bulletins by the Office of National Statistics for the dates July 2010 and October 2011 it appears he is correct.
In the period from March to May 2010 there were 7.63 million women in full-time employment whilst from June to August 2011 the figure reached 7.73 million. Therefore, the number of women in full-time employment since the last election is actually higher than that quoted by David Cameron, at 100,000.
However, when we include part-time employment in this calculation a slightly less impressive figure emerges.
From March to May 2010 there were 5.87 million women in part-time employment while the most recent bulletin recorded that this had dropped to 5.82 million women, meaning female part-time employment has actually decreased by 50,000.
Overall therefore, total female employment appears to have grown by 50,000, the figure given by the Prime Minister.
Does this mean Ed Miliband was wrong?
Ed Miliband's claim appears to have come directly from the last month's unemployment bulletin from the ONS. This stated that in hitting 1.06 million the number of unemployed women had reached "the highest figure since the three months to April 1988.”
Looking at today's update we can see that this figure has now grown to 1.07 million, meaning that the historical analysis offered by the Labour leader still holds water.
Conclusion
Both female employment and unemployment rates have therefore increased within the respective time scales offered, meaning both Ed Miliband and David Cameron are correct.
This continues a recent trend at PMQs whereby the two adversaries respond to each other's claims with counter-claims which give the impression of contradicting what was said, without actually doing so. While neither is stretching the truth, the practice does little to add to the transparency of political debate.
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