The economy is bigger than we thought

9 April 2014

Few sets of figures are considered more significant than those which measure the size of the UK's economy, and how quickly it's growing.

So it's often surprising how uncertain many of the estimates are, and how often they're revised later on. Fresh estimates of the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are published every three months, but in each intervening month the initial numbers are often adjusted.

This week it was reported that large changes to the way the Office for National Statistics (ONS) counts GDP this autumn will mean the economy will be between about £40 billion and £75 billion bigger than it otherwise would have looked.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the economy will suddenly appear to be growing faster or slower, it will just be bigger than previous estimates have suggested. The total size of the economy is currently valued at some £1.5 trillion (£1,500 billion).

Growth figures for the last few years may still be revised separately, but the ONS told Full Fact that there was no way to tell whether it will make growth higher or lower than the current set of estimates shows.

The ONS confirmed to us that the main changes would be the inclusion of research and development and weapons spending as direct contributors towards GDP, and that household savings will be measured differently (making us into a nation of savers, says the FT).

The reforms will bring the UK in line with the European System of Accounts 2010, which is itself a version of the internationally-used System of National Accounts.

It's unfortunate, in light of the numerous media reports, that there's no obvious place to find the details of the changes on the ONS website. They pointed us to page six of this publication for some of the specifics along with separate background information, and informed us that more detailed guides would be released in the next few months.

We're hoping to be able to link to a statement from the ONS shortly which will clarify the numbers in light of the press reporting.

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