111 referrals to GPs haven't tripled in a year

"The NHS 111 helpline is piling pressure on health services, with the number of calls referred through to GPs and A&E each up by almost 200%, according to doctors' leaders." - Daily Mail, 4 February 2014

"Referrals from NHS 111 to A&E increased from just under 400,000 calls in 2013 to over a million in 2014. Similarly, referrals to GPs went up from just under 3 million to 8 million between 2013 and 2014." — BBC News, 4 February 2014

These figures, based on analysis from the British Medical Association (BMA), caught our attention this morning.

But the way they've been reported by a number of news outlets is incorrect. The figures show the number of referrals doubled from January to October 2013 to the same period in 2014, rather than tripled as stated by the coverage. This increase is in line with a doubling in the number of calls answered by the 111 service.

We're in touch with the BMA, who've said there's no inaccuracy in their figures. They've offered to provide us with their workings, so we'll know more tomorrow.

Over 9 million calls were answered in the January-October 2014 period. Of these, around half ended in the patient being directed to a GP surgery or other primary or community service* and 600,000 to A&E.

That represents a doubling of the number of calls (up 106%), of referrals to GPs (up 109%) and A&Es (up 114%) compared to the same period of 2013.

So the comparison doesn't suggest that there was a big jump in the rate of referral from 111, just that it handled more people than before in roughly the same way.

*these figures don't include those referred to a pharmacy or dentist.