Lack of trust in the Conservatives was a significant factor in the party’s electoral defeat

New research reveals that voters who helped deliver the last Conservative parliamentary majority in 2019 are now significantly more distrusting of politicians than the UK public as a whole. 

Polling by Full Fact and Savanta found that 59% of people who voted Conservative in 2019 don’t trust politicians to keep their promises, 10 points higher than the general public (49%). 

Findings indicate that lack of trust in the Conservatives was a significant factor in the party’s electoral defeat. 64% of the public thought the party was not trusted by voters in 2024, as did more than a third of people who voted Conservative in 2024 and more than half of those who did so in 2019 (38% and 58% respectively). 

As well as demonstrating the depth of the rupture in the Conservatives’ 2019 voter coalition, the poll also found that 58% of the public say they would not consider voting Tory again, as would more than a quarter of people who voted Conservative in 2019 (27%) and 40% of people who voted for Reform UK in 2024.

The results make challenging reading for party members and the four Conservative leadership candidates gathering for the party’s annual conference Birmingham to reflect on the general election defeat.

Chris Morris, Chief Executive of Full Fact said:

Our results demonstrate that trust is the foundation stone that any political party needs to set if they hope to get their leadership plans off the ground.

The next Conservative leader must recognise that their core target voters want to see bold, decisive, and urgent plans to earn back voters’ trust. Delivering the more honest politics that the country deserves should be at the top of the next leader’s talking points. Without that, the public may well choose not to listen to anything else they have to say.

The survey, conducted in the weeks leading up to Conservative Party Conference, also found that:

• 61% of people rank trust as ‘very important’ to their decision about who to vote for, a consistent result across people who voted for all parties and slightly higher (67%) amongst 2019 Conservative voters
• More than half of all Conservative 2019 voters (57%) don’t trust politicians to avoid misleading the public - the second-highest proportion of voters for any party in 2019 or 2024, behind only Reform UK (59%)

Full Fact also interviewed leaders of local Conservative Associations to understand how trust impacted their relationships with voters during the election. Harvey Cohen, Chair of Hertsmere Conservative Association - a constituency which retained their Conservative MP at the general election - said:

We were able to buck the national trend because our Conservative MP matches his words with actions. It goes to show you can say what you like [while campaigning], but if you don’t deliver the results you won’t get elected.

The results did indicate that visible, credible, and urgent action by the next leader to repair public trust in the Conservatives could win back crucial voters.

68% of 2019 Conservative voters said rebuilding trust in the party should be one of the top priorities for the next leader and one in three said it should be the top priority (33%) - more than double the proportion who said the top priority should be holding the government to account (15%) or reassessing the party’s policies (12%). This sentiment was matched by the public overall, more than half of whom (57%) said the next Conservative leader should prioritise rebuilding trust. 

Bold action required

Opinions are split on the best course of action. When asked about a series of initiatives the next Conservative leader could take to improve trust, Conservative voters (both in 2019 and 2024) strongly support changes to rules that hold ministers responsible if they lie (65% and 58%), and creating better ways for Parliament to hold MPs accountable for spreading false information (56% and 50%). 

But the public overall more strongly support an initiative to create a new Conservative Party official role with responsibility for improving honesty and trust (34%) - which may indicate that the general public views the Conservative Party as more affected by the issue. All three options were significantly more supported than proposals to strengthen the Prime Minister's independent advisor or increase training for MPs on standards in public life. 

However, the new Labour government may also be vulnerable to the consequences of historic low trust in politics. Despite the clear focus on repairing trust in politics repeated by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool earlier this week, the Full Fact/Savanta poll found that 62% of the public think the Government has not done very much or nothing at all to improve trust. This perception was highest amongst people aged over 55, and amongst voters in the Midlands and the North of England - key regions where Labour defeated the Conservative to secure a record parliamentary majority. 

Full Fact campaigns to build a more honest politics. We have called for the Government to make transparent and accurate use of data part of the Ministerial Code, for the Code to be made statutory, for political parties to commit to honest campaigning, and for legislation to end deceptive campaign practices.