Think tank did not estimate that the average person is ‘over £10,000 a year’ worse off since 2010

“Data revealed by the Centre for Cities today shows that after 14 years, towns and cities in every corner of our country have been levelled down, left behind and left out of pocket. On average, people are over £10,000 a year worse off as a result of the sluggish growth since 2010.”

“Data revealed by the Centre for Cities showed that, after 14 years of Tory rule, towns and cities in every corner of our country have been levelled down, left behind, and left out of pocket. On average, people are over £10,000 a year worse off because the Prime Minister’s party has failed on growth.”

During Prime Minister’s Questions on 7 February, Labour MP Janet Daby repeated a claim made by the party’s deputy leader Angela Rayner MP in Parliament in January—that a think tank had found that “on average, people are over £10,000 a year worse off” after 14 years of Conservative government.

This isn’t correct.

A press release for the Centre for Cities study cited by Ms Daby and Ms Rayner states: “At the national level, people have been left with £10,200 less to spend or save on average since 2010 than if the economy had grown at pre-2010 trends.”

The think tank looked at how much additional disposable income people would have accrued between 2010 and 2022 were the economy to have grown at the same rate as it did between 1998 and 2010. It then compared this to the amount of disposable income people have actually had on average over this period. So the “over £10,000” figure is not an average amount “a year”, as claimed by Ms Daby and Ms Rayner. It is a cumulative figure.

It’s also important to be clear that this figure is based on a counterfactual estimate of how disposable incomes might have changed were the economy to have grown at the same rate between 2010 and 2022 as it did in the 12 years before that—it does not show the amount people are actually worse off since 2010.

Paul Swinney, director of policy and research at Centre for Cities, told Full Fact: “In total we estimate that the average person would have received £10,200 more overall over the period relative to the counterfactual, not £10,200 per year.”

We’ve contacted Ms Daby and Ms Rayner about the error, and will update this article if we receive a response from either of them.

MPs should correct false or misleading claims as soon as possible. Currently MPs who aren’t ministers cannot correct the official record in the House of Commons but this will soon change. Following a successful Full Fact campaign, in October 2023 MPs voted to change the corrections system in Parliament to allow all MPs to correct the official record. Full Fact is urging that the new way for MPs to correct the official record be implemented quickly and effectively.

Image courtesy of UK Parliament