The cost of welfare is going to go to £70 billion.
This figure appears to refer to the forecast cost of spending on health and disability benefits for working-age adults, which is set to reach £75.7 billion by 2029/30. Overall spending on benefits and pensions is forecast to reach around £378 billion by the end of the decade.
The benefits bill reached £48 billion in 2023/24. It is forecast to continue rising to £67 billion in 2029/30.
These figures also appear to refer to the forecast cost of working-age health and disability benefit spending, though the £67 billion figure is too low.
The welfare bill is going to rise by £70 billion.
This is broadly right for the overall forecast increase in welfare spending between 2024/25 and 2029/30.
The government is expected to announce changes to welfare spending this week, with much of the focus on the number of people claiming health and disability-related benefits.
In the lead-up to this announcement, we’ve seen versions of one particular claim circulating—that welfare or benefits spending is set to reach £70 billion by the end of the decade.
The Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said last week: “The welfare system as it’s set up, it can’t be defended on economic terms or moral terms.
“Economically, the cost is going through the roof. So if we don’t do anything, the cost of welfare is going to go to £70 billion per year.”
On BBC Breakfast on 17 March economic secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds MP said that without changes “we’ll be spending £70 billion on social security by the end of the decade”.
On the same day, MailOnline reported that as a result of more people claiming health and disability benefits “the benefits bill has risen with this increase, reaching £48 billion in 2023-24.
“It is forecast to continue rising to £67 billion in 2029-30—more than the current schools budget.”
And on the BBC’s Newsnight last week we saw “£70 billion” referenced in a different context—Conservative MP Sir Bernard Jenkin claimed that “the welfare bill itself is going to rise by £70 billion”.
It wasn’t made clear from Mr Starmer’s and Ms Reynolds’ claims that the £70 billion figure appears to refer to the forecast cost of working-age health and disability benefit spending by 2029/30—not the overall cost of welfare spending, which is much higher. Sir Bernard meanwhile was broadly correct about the forecast increase in overall welfare spending by the end of the decade.
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According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), spending on health and disability benefits for working-age adults is forecast to increase from £56.4 billion in 2024/25 to £75.7 billion in 2029/30.
Mr Starmer and Ms Reynolds referred to this figure as the forecast “cost of welfare” or “social security” spending—but it’s worth being clear that this is only a portion of overall welfare spending.
Spending on welfare excluding pensions and other pensioner spending is forecast to increase from £162.9 billion in 2024/25 to £195 billion in 2029/30, while spending on overall welfare (including pensions and other pensioner spending) is forecast to increase from £313.6 billion to £377.7 billion over the same period. (This £64.1 billion increase is what Sir Bernard was referring to when he said “the welfare bill itself is going to rise by £70 billion”.)
This means that the increase in health and disability benefit spending for working-age adults is forecast to account for approximately 60% of the increase in welfare spending excluding pensions and pensioner spending by 2029/30, and around 30% of the overall increase in welfare spending (including pensions) over this period.
The amount the government spends on health and disability benefits for children and pensioners is also forecast to increase over this period, by £2.8 billion and £3.7 billion respectively.
This means overall health and disability spending is forecast to increase by a total of £25.8 billion between 2024/25 and 2029/30. This accounts for 80% of the forecast increase in welfare spending excluding pensioner spending, and 40% of the forecast overall increase in welfare spending including pensions by the end of the decade.
Of the £64.1 billion forecast increase in overall welfare spending between 2024/25 and 2029/30, the largest factor is pensions and pensioner spending, which is forecast to increase by £32 billion (roughly half of the total increase). In total, pensioner spending and health and disability benefits are forecast to account for approximately nine-tenths of the increase by 2029/30.
It’s worth noting these figures may change when the OBR publishes its forthcoming forecast on 26 March.
MailOnline has since corrected its article after Full Fact got in touch. We’ve contacted Mr Starmer and Ms Reynolds about their claims and will update this article if we receive a response.
It’s been reported that the government is seeking to reduce welfare spending by around £5 billion.
Media reports and comments from government ministers themselves have suggested that health and disability spending is likely to be the focus of this reduction.
It’s been reported that the government is considering changes to eligibility criteria for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), as well as an end to work capability assessments.
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