What does the pledge mean?

The UK is one of seven advanced economies considered part of the ‘G7’ group. The others are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.

The main measure of economic growth globally is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the UK, this is generally expressed as ‘economic output’—the value of goods and services produced during a given period. UK data is released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which also publishes international comparisons of the UK’s real GDP growth alongside other G7 countries.

The ONS releases GDP data monthly, quarterly and annually, and publishes international comparisons quarterly and annually.

How much control a government has over its country’s GDP is debatable. While government policies can certainly influence economic growth, GDP growth can depend on a wide range of other factors, such as geopolitical developments or even the weather.

As we’ve written previously, ahead of the election the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer expressed an ambition for the UK’s annual GDP growth to reach 2.5%.

A similar pledge also appeared in the government’s “Plan for Change”, launched in December 2024. In it, the government said it would “aim to deliver the highest sustained growth in the G7”, rather than “secure”, as was the wording in the manifesto. This was interpreted by some to represent a weakening of the original pledge, which the government denied.

Labour’s manifesto didn’t specify what timeframe it expects to deliver this pledge within, or what it means by “sustained” growth. In March 2025, the Treasury directed us a ministerial answer to a written parliamentary question which said: “We aim to have the highest growth in the G7 by the end of the parliament, measured using estimates of real terms Gross Domestic Product per capita.”

This correlates with what Labour said in a document published in 2023, that the party would “measure the annual rate of GDP per capita growth compared to other countries”, and that the “ambition” was to “have the highest growth in the G7 over consecutive years by the end of the parliament”. However, when we’ve asked about the manifesto pledge since the election, the government hasn’t confirmed what “sustained” means, or if annual or quarterly data will be used, so we’re not sure if the parameters set out in 2023 still hold.

In August 2025 we again asked the government what its manifesto meant by “sustained”.

GDP per capita, or per head, is considered an indicator of economic welfare, because, as the ONS says, “the volume of goods and services available to the average person is a proxy for a country’s living standards”. However, the OECD says that “a better picture of people’s economic well-being” is real household income per capita.

In December 2024, the government announced a separate pledge on living standards, as part of its Plan for Change, which we’re also monitoring.

The OECD measures real GDP per capita by dividing GDP by mid-year population. GDP per capita and GDP growth rates can differ. For example, the ONS notes that in recent years growth per head has slowed “as the population has increased at a faster rate than the volume of output produced”.

What progress has been made?

So far we have full comparative data on real GDP growth per capita (the metric the government has said it is using) among G7 countries for three quarters of the Labour government’s time in office—Q3 2024 (though this quarter began a few days before Labour formed a government), Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

By this measure, in Q3 2024 the UK had the lowest growth per capita in the G7, and the second lowest in Q4 2024, but the highest in Q1 2025 (0.47%).

The ONS estimates that in Q2 2025 the UK’s real GDP per head grew by 0.2%.

We’re continuing to rate this pledge as “in progress”, as Labour’s promise was for the “highest sustained growth” in real GDP per capita. While this was the highest in the G7 in Q1 2025, it wasn’t in the previous two quarters, so it doesn’t yet appear to be “sustained”. We don’t yet have comparative figures for Q2 2025.

A more common measure of a country’s economic performance is overall GDP growth, which the OECD says is “the single most important indicator to capture economic activities”.

We have comparative data for this measure that broadly covers Labour’s first year in government. The most recent figures show that the UK had the joint second highest rate of real GDP growth in Q2 2025, alongside both France and Japan.

The UK’s real GDP saw the second lowest growth in the G7 in both Q3 2024 (0%) and Q4 2024 (0.1%). The UK had the highest growth in the G7 in Q1 2025 (0.7%).

GDP data is subject to revision, so these figures may change at a later date.

While monthly comparisons among G7 nations are not currently available, it’s worth noting the latest monthly data estimates the UK economy grew by 0.4% in June 2025, after falling by 0.1% in both May and April.