What does the pledge mean?

The UK is one of seven advanced economies considered part of the ‘G7’ group. The others are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.

The main measure of economic growth globally is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the UK, this is generally expressed as ‘economic output’—the value of goods and services produced during a given period. UK data is released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which also publishes international comparisons of the UK’s real GDP growth alongside other G7 countries.

The ONS releases GDP data monthly, quarterly and annually, and publishes international comparisons quarterly and annually.

How much control a government has over its country’s GDP is debatable. While government policies can certainly influence economic growth, GDP growth can depend on a wide range of other factors, such as geopolitical developments or even the weather.

As we’ve written previously, ahead of the 2024 general election Sir Keir Starmer expressed an ambition for the UK’s annual GDP growth to reach 2.5%.

A similar pledge also appeared in the government’s “Plan for Change”, launched in December 2024. In it, the government said it would “aim to deliver the highest sustained growth in the G7”, rather than “secure”, as was the wording in the manifesto. This was interpreted by some to represent a weakening of the original pledge, which the government denied.

Labour’s manifesto didn’t specify what timeframe it expects to deliver this pledge within, or what it means by “sustained” growth. In March 2025, the Treasury directed us to a ministerial answer to a written parliamentary question which said: “We aim to have the highest growth in the G7 by the end of the parliament, measured using estimates of real terms Gross Domestic Product per capita.”

This correlates with what Labour said in a document published in 2023, that the party would “measure the annual rate of GDP per capita growth compared to other countries”, and that the “ambition” was to “have the highest growth in the G7 over consecutive years by the end of the parliament”. However, when we’ve asked about the manifesto pledge since the election, the government hasn’t confirmed what “sustained” means, or if annual or quarterly data will be used, so we’re not sure if the parameters set out in 2023 still hold.

In August 2025 we again asked the government what its manifesto meant by “sustained”. We didn’t receive a response.

GDP per capita, or per head, is considered an indicator of economic welfare, because, as the ONS says, “the volume of goods and services available to the average person is a proxy for a country’s living standards”. However, the OECD says that “a better picture of people’s economic well-being” is real household income per head.

In December 2024, the government announced a separate pledge on living standards, as part of its Plan for Change, which we’re also monitoring.

The OECD measures real GDP per head by dividing GDP by mid-year population. GDP per head and overall GDP growth rates can differ. For example, the ONS notes that in recent years growth per head has slowed “as the population has increased at a faster rate than the volume of output produced”.

What progress has been made?

We’re rating this pledge as “appears off track”, as the UK has had the highest GDP per head (the metric it appears to be measuring progress on the pledge by) in the G7 in one quarter since Labour took office, but not in consecutive quarters or overall since July 2024.

So far we have full comparative data on real GDP growth per head among G7 countries for the first six quarters of the Labour government’s time in office.

The UK had the highest real GDP per growth per head in the G7 in Q1 2025, but the most recent comparative data shows the UK had the joint second lowest growth in the final quarter of 2025.

The ONS estimates that in the first quarter of 2026 the UK’s real GDP per head increased by 0.6%, but we don’t yet have full comparative figures for this period.

A more common measure of a country’s economic performance is overall GDP growth, which the OECD says is “the single most important indicator to capture economic activities”.

At the time of writing, we don’t have Q1 2026 data for this measure for Japan, but of the six countries figures were available for, the UK had the highest growth at 0.6%.

In the previous quarter, Q4 2025, the UK’s GDP grew by 0.2%, the joint-second highest level behind Italy and Japan.

GDP data is subject to revision, so these figures may change at a later date.

While monthly comparisons among G7 nations are not currently available, it’s worth noting the latest monthly data estimates the UK economy grew by 0.3% in March 2026, after growth of 0.4% in February and no growth in January.