You’ve less than a one in three chance of reaching 100

Published: 14th Jun 2019

In brief

Claim

One in three people aged 30 are going to live to 100.

Conclusion

This appears to be an overestimate. The latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics say that men aged 30 have a 12.5% (one in eight) chance of reaching 100, while women aged 30 have a 17.2% chance (one in six).

“One in three people aged 30 are going to live to 100,”

Matt Hancock MP, 10 June 2019

In his campaign launch speech, health secretary and Conservative party leadership candidate Matt Hancock claimed that one in three people aged 30 are going to live to 100.

Now, obviously with claims like this, we can’t say for certain whether this will happen or not. We’ll attempt to update this piece in 2089 when more data becomes available.

But as a prediction, this appears optimistic.

The Office for National Statistics estimated in 2017 that 17.2% of UK women aged 30 (about one in six)  will reach their 100th birthday. For men the chance of reaching 100 is 12.5% (one in eight).

Even for newborns at the time, the chance of reaching 100 was less than a third (23.4% for boys and 29.2% for girls).

We’ve asked Mr Hancock’s office for more information on his figures.


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