London Mayor candidate wrong to claim Covid-19 pandemic is no worse than a flu season

“The politicians and the media have a very, very poor understanding of science and mathematics and they’ve pursued and pushed a narrative that the coronavirus—Covid-19—is far, far worse and more dangerous than it actually is. The reality is that it’s no worse than a bad flu season.”

David Kurten, video posted to Facebook, 13 October 2020.

“The truth is that the science and the maths and the statistics show that this whole made up coronavirus pandemic is no worse than in a normal flu season.”

David Kurten, video posted to Facebook, 20 September 2020.

London mayoral candidate David Kurten has variously claimed that Covid-19 is “no worse” than a “bad” or a “normal” flu season. Mr Kurten, who founded the Heritage Party and is standing for mayor as an independent candidate, made the claims in two videos shared on his Facebook page, one addressing an anti-lockdown rally in Trafalgar Square in September and one at the World Doctors Alliance launch in Berlin in October. 

We have been asked to check this claim by users on WhatsApp.

Mr Kurten is incorrect to make these claims. The number of deaths caused by Covid-19 so far is much greater than the number of deaths caused by flu in a given flu season.

If we were to include the increased number of deaths that occur during winter (when flu season happens) then the number is more comparable with the number of deaths due to Covid-19. But this is only comparing years with a higher number of excess deaths and not all these deaths will be down to flu. Covid-19 has killed far more people than flu alone would in a bad season.

It’s also important to note that the Covid-19 death rate has been kept lower than it might otherwise be due to the various restrictions on public movement which aren’t in place during the flu season. If these restrictions had not been put in place, it is very likely that the Covid-19 death toll would be considerably higher.

How many people have died of flu and Covid-19?

The most recent figures from Public Health England, published in June, show that the average number of deaths associated with influenza in the past four flu seasons for which complete figures are available (2015/16  to 2018/19) was 12,117. This varies from a low of 3,966 deaths to a high of 22,087 deaths.

The latest Covid-19 government figures (as of 19 October) show there have been 38,783 deaths of people in England who tested positive with Covid-19 in the 28 days before their death. 

This figure doesn’t include people who may have died of Covid-19 without a positive test, especially during the early part of the pandemic when testing was not widely available. In England, between January and August, 45,797 people died and had Covid-19 listed as the underlying cause of death on their death certificate. 

This means twice as many people have died from Covid-19 in England than died of flu during the worst season in recent years.

Excess deaths

It is possible that Mr Kurten was referring to any increase in deaths during a flu season, rather than those specifically caused by flu. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that there were 46,030 excess winter deaths in England in 2017/18 (the year with the most excess deaths since at least the early 1990s). Excess winter deaths are the number of deaths in any given winter above the average. These deaths can be from any cause though, so they are not just deaths related to flu. 

Excess deaths have also been reported during the Covid-19 pandemic. ONS figures show that, between 7 March and 1 May 2020, non-Covid-19 deaths were 15.3% above the five-year average for this period. However, from this point until 10 July (the most recent date we have data for), non-Covid-19 deaths were 6% below the average. 

The ONS has suggested this may be because the deaths of some people were “brought forward” by the pandemic, meaning they died a few months earlier than they may have otherwise.