Do new migration figures show an ‘exodus’ of British nationals in response to Labour?

Following the publication of revised estimates of net migration to the UK by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) earlier this week, many have claimed that the figures show there was an “exodus” of British nationals last year—with some suggesting that Labour’s policies are responsible.

The revised estimates do show that the number of Britons leaving the country, and the net number of Britons emigrating, was higher in the year ending December 2024 than in the same period in 2023, 2022 and 2021, the recent years we have comparable data for.

In the year ending December 2024, 257,000 British nationals are now estimated to have emigrated from the UK—2,000 more British nationals than in 2023. Meanwhile, 143,000 are estimated to have returned to the UK—7,000 fewer than in 2023. This means the UK saw greater numbers of British nationals leaving the UK than returning, with estimated net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration) of -114,000 in 2024, compared to -104,000 in 2023.

But these figures have been trending up since before Labour took office. The new figures show that the estimated number of British nationals emigrating from the UK has been broadly increasing since 2021, while the estimated number of British nationals returning to the UK has been falling. The year-on-year increase in the number of British emigrants and the increase in the net number emigrating in 2024 is also smaller than that in previous years (though it’s worth noting that we only have very limited comparable figures).

It’s too early to tell what impact Labour’s policies have had on the number of British nationals leaving the UK, because we don’t yet have figures covering their first full year in office—though these are set to be published in the next few days.

What are the new figures?

The ONS has implemented new methods for estimating British and EU+ (EU members plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) national migration. This involves using tax and benefits records rather than survey data which the ONS has said was “stretched beyond its intended purpose” —you can read more about this here.

The figures published on 18 November are revised estimates produced using these new methods for immigration, emigration and net migration between June 2021 and December 2024.

That means these figures aren’t comparable with the previous estimates for this period, and are also not comparable with estimates prior to 2021.

As a result it’s hard to say how different the picture is over the last four years compared to previously, because we don’t know how much of the difference in figures is due to actual changes in migration, and how much is due to the change in the way the figures are produced.

Has there been an ‘exodus’ of British nationals in response to Labour?

Commenting on the ONS’s estimate that in the year ending December 2024 257,000 British nationals emigrated from the UK, Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said [1h 56] there had been an “exodus” of British nationals which was evidence of “wrong decisions” under Labour, Meanwhile the shadow home secretary Chris Philp MP claimed the figures show that tax increases implemented by Labour are “causing Britons to flee in record numbers”.

There are a few things worth noting about this. Firstly, the 257,000 figure covers Labour’s first six months in office (broadly speaking), but also the first half of 2024, when the Conservatives were in government. We don’t know how many of the 257,000 people estimated to have emigrated in 2024 left after the general election.

Estimates for net migration in the year ending June 2025, broadly covering Labour’s first year in office, will be published next week.

Secondly, while the 257,000 figure is much higher than the estimate for British national emigration produced under the old methods, this is also the case for estimates of British national emigration across the whole four-year period for which revisions have been applied.

For example, in the year ending December 2023, the previous methods estimated that 98,000 British nationals had emigrated. The new methods put the estimate at 255,000.

The new figures show estimated British national emigration was 262,000 in June 2021, before falling to 233,000 in December 2021, and then increasing in the following years.

It’s also worth being clear that these figures refer specifically to the number of British nationals leaving the UK.

In the year ending December 2024 an estimated 143,000 British nationals also returned to live in the UK, meaning that net migration of British nationals was -114,000 (that is, 114,000 more British nationals emigrated than returned to the UK).

The new figures show that the estimated number of British nationals moving to the UK has been decreasing since 2022. Coupled with increasing emigration, this means net migration of British nationals to the UK has also decreased over this period.

Whether the 257,000 British nationals who emigrated in 2024 is a “record”, as Mr Philp suggested, it’s hard to say. The figure is the highest estimated British emigration in a calendar year over the four years for which comparable figures are available, but a higher 12-month figure was recorded in the year ending June 2021, and figures before this are not comparable with the new estimates.

What we can say for certain is that the new estimates suggest that net migration of British nationals away from the UK has been steadily increasing in recent years.