Politics Live

British politics is dominated once again by the war in Ukraine, and the impact of the Russian invasion on wider European security. Not for the first time though, the headlines have been led by President Trump. 

Speaking overnight following talks between US and Russian officials, Mr Trump appeared to suggest that Ukraine “started” the conflict with Russia.

He said: “Today I heard [from Ukraine], ‘we weren’t invited’. Well, you’ve been there for three years, you should have ended it three years [ago], you should’ve never started it. You could have made a deal.”

Russia has often sought to blame Ukraine for the conflict, including in its justification for launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. German fact checkers DW Fact Check have previously looked in detail at Russia’s claims that Ukraine started the war.

Full Fact’s chief executive Chris Morris writes:

It is a fact that Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, in violation of international law. It is also a fact that Russia launched a full scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but failed to achieve its initial goal of taking the capital, Kyiv.

Why Russia took those actions is a matter of opinion, and is the subject of often venomous political debate. 

What is new here is that President Trump has broken the western consensus that Russia was and is at fault for the war in Ukraine. And that will have lasting implications in Westminster, across Europe, and for the future of the western alliance.  

Chris has also just written in response to US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks over the weekend about freedom of speech and democracy—you can read his ‘JD Vance is wrong, facts are not opinions’ blog here.

An article published by the Express on Monday claimed that “as it stands the UK spends 2.5% of GDP on defence”.

But that’s not correct. In 2023/24 the UK spent approximately 2.3% of its GDP on defence, and as the Ministry of Defence told Full Fact this week it is currently expected to maintain this level of defence spending as a percentage of GDP in both 2024/25 and 2025/26.

The government has said it is committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, but has yet to set out a timeframe for doing so. Our Government Tracker has full details on this pledge.

We’ve contacted the Express for comment and will update this live blog with any response.

In response last week to new GDP quarterly growth figures, Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride MP claimed on GB News and Sky News that when the Conservatives left office, the UK had the “fastest growing economy in the G7”.

We’ve heard similar claims from Conservative politicians a lot in recent months, and have previously asked the party to confirm exactly what it’s based on. We have asked the Conservative party again about Mr Stride’s most recent claim, but haven’t yet received a response.

One such claim we looked at last year appeared to be based on combined GDP growth figures for the first two quarters of 2024.

Those figures did initially show that the UK had the highest GDP growth in the G7 over that period. However subsequent revisions to the data, which we wrote about last month, suggested that the UK actually had the joint-fastest growing economy in the first two quarters of 2024 (up 0.7% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2), alongside the United States (0.4% in Q1 and 0.7% in Q2). (In fact, unrounded figures showed the US had the slightly higher growth of the two over the two quarters).

Now, following further revisions, the latest data once again suggests the UK did indeed have the fastest growing economy in the G7 based on this measure (0.8% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2), ahead of the US, the figures for which are unchanged.

Meanwhile, figures published last week by the Office for National Statistics estimate that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, following 0.0% growth in Q3 2024 (broadly covering Labour’s first three months in government). The UK’s Q4 growth was the third highest in the G7 during this period (though note that data for Japan is not yet available).

In its election manifesto Labour promised to “secure the highest sustained growth in the G7”. We’re monitoring progress against this pledge in our Government Tracker.

Following last week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, Full Fact wrote to the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, to ask him to correct the record, after he appeared to confuse net migration figures and immigration figures.

We’ve not received a response, but Mr Starmer still seems to be getting the figures mixed up and at least one other minister has made a similar mistake in recent days (though other ministers have referred to the figures accurately).

At today’s PMQs, Mr Starmer claimed of the Conservatives: “They presided over record high levels of immigration. Reached nearly one million.”

And earlier this week, in a statement press released by the Labour party, border security and asylum minister Dame Angela Eagle said: “The Tories lost control of our borders with immigration at a record high of nearly one million”. 

As we explained last week, these figures aren’t quite right. Immigration (the number of people moving to the UK for 12 months or more) actually reached a record high of approximately 1.3 million under the Conservatives, in the year to June 2023. 

The figure of “nearly one million” meanwhile appears to refer to net migration (the number of long-term immigrants to the UK minus the number of long-term emigrants), which in the year to June 2023 is estimated to have reached a record high of approximately 906,000.

On a topic as high-profile and polarising as immigration, we believe it’s important that ministers quote statistics precisely and accurately, and correct inaccurate or misleading claims as soon as possible.

We’ve contacted Dame Angela about this, and will update this blog if we receive a reply.

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Russell Findlay MSP, claimed on BBC One’s Question Time [13:10] on Thursday that “140 million Americans cast their vote” for Donald Trump.

This isn’t correct. According to the US government’s official vote count, 77,302,580 votes were cast for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election. 

This represented about 49.8% of the 155,238,302 votes cast in total.  

When Full Fact contacted Mr Findlay’s office, they quickly told us that his comment was a “slip of the tongue”, explaining that he meant to refer to the total number of Americans who voted. 

Mistakes happen, and we’re grateful for the prompt acknowledgement.

Labour MP Deirdre Costigan appears to be the latest politician to have confused the number of people on the NHS waiting list with the number of cases.

Ms Costigan, who is also a member of the Health and Social Care Committee, said during an evidence hearing on 29 January: “The big number that [my constituents] have heard is that there are 7.6 million people on the waiting list.”

Full Fact’s AI monitoring tools have previously spotted more than 50 similar claims apparently confusing the number of cases on the NHS waiting list with the number of people.

The latest data from NHS England estimates that as of November 2024, there were about 6.3 million unique patients waiting to start 7.5 million courses of treatment.

The number of cases will always be greater than the number of individual people because some people are waiting for treatment for more than one thing.

Past work by the Office for National Statistics does suggest that about 9.7 million adults in England were waiting for some kind of NHS service last winter, but this figure includes many services not covered by the official elective care “waiting list”.  

We’ve fact checked similar claims about the number of people on the NHS waiting list a number of times over the last year—including a recent example in The Times.

We have contacted Ms Costigan for comment and will update this article if we hear back.

At today’s Prime Minister’s Questions, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer claimed that the previous government “quadrupled immigration, reaching almost one million a year”.

We think the PM may have been intending to refer to net migration (the number of long-term immigrants to the UK minus the number of long-term emigrants) rather than immigration—we’ve contacted Number 10 to ask about this.

According to the Office for National Statistics, in the year ending June 2023 net migration was estimated to be 906,000. That’s the highest level since current comparable records began in 2012, and more than four times higher than in the year ending June 2019 (when it was estimated to be 224,000).

Meanwhile in the year ending June 2023, immigration was estimated to be 1,320,000—some way over a million. That’s also the highest level on record, but historic data shows estimated immigration did not “quadruple” under the Conservatives, either compared to when they entered office in 2010 or compared to any point during their time in office.

Today, 31 January 2025, is the fifth anniversary of the day the UK formally left the European Union. 

And to mark it, we’ve been taking a quick look back at some of the claims we’ve fact checked about Brexit, both in that period and before, since the EU referendum nearly nine years ago. 

During the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, we saw government ministers claim the UK’s vaccine rollout was quicker due to Brexit. 

That wasn’t correct in terms of regulatory approval at least—under EU law countries are allowed to act independently to approve vaccines in emergency situations. Yet we’ve heard versions of this claim repeated often in the years since. 

Indeed, as recently as yesterday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage MP appeared to say something similar when he told the Daily Express, while speaking about what he thought Brexit has achieved: “We got a vaccine out more quickly than any other country. Some people think that’s great, some don’t, but we were able to do it.” 

There’s been confusion over the value of trade deals made since Brexit, as well as which deals were rolled over from our time in the EU (though a word of caution, some of the specifics in those fact checks are now likely to be out of date, particularly as new free trade agreements have since come into force). 

A common issue we’ve seen with some of the claims we’ve checked about the impact of Brexit on the UK’s economy is that they are based on counterfactual estimates, without always making that clear.So for example a 2023 claim that tax revenue had fallen by £40 billion a year was based on a comparison between how the UK had performed since the EU referendum and how it might have been expected to perform had the UK not voted to leave the EU—it wasn’t a figure for how the UK’s tax revenue had actually changed since 2016. This important distinction hasn’t always been made clear when the figure has been cited.

We’ve also repeatedly checked claims about the European Court of Human Rights in the years since Brexit. Contrary to some claims we've seen, the court is part of the international organisation the Council of Europe, and is not an EU institution. The European Convention on Human Rights, the implementation of which is overseen by the court, protects the human rights of members of the Council of Europe and the UK’s membership of it is not connected to the EU or to Brexit. 

You can read more of the fact checks we’ve written about Brexit here.

This morning chancellor Rachel Reeves gave official government backing for the construction of a third runway at Heathrow Airport, as part of a major speech on boosting economic growth. 

While the government claims the project could create more than 100,000 jobs and generate billions for the economy, there are still several hurdles ahead before construction can begin. Even if those hurdles are overcome, it will be several years—some reports have suggested 10 or more—before the runway is built and operational. 

The airport first needs to secure approval for a Development Consent Order (DCO)—a type of planning permission for nationally significant infrastructure. It has yet to do so.

Plans for a third runway previously received parliamentary approval in June 2018, but progress stalled after a legal challenge. The plans then did not progress following a fall in demand for air travel during the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the Planning Inspectorate, Heathrow’s application for a third runway is currently in the “pre-application” stage. A detailed breakdown of the stages that follow once an application has been submitted suggests it could take approximately 18 months before a decision—which will be made by the transport secretary—is announced.  

This is roughly in line with the timescale expected for Gatwick Airport, which submitted a DCO for an alteration to one of its runways on 6 July 2023 and is due to receive a decision by 27 February 2025. 

Despite the government backing for a third runway at Heathrow, it’s expected to face opposition from nearby residents, climate groups and London Mayor Sadiq Khan, and it’s likely the plans may then face legal challenges before any construction can begin. 

In the last few days we’ve seen a number of Conservative politicians, including Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, claim that their government left “the fastest growing economy in the G7”.

We’ve asked the Conservative party to confirm exactly what this is based on, and haven’t had a response. But a similar claim we looked at last year appeared to be based on combined GDP growth figures for the first two quarters of 2024.

Those figures did initially show that the UK had the highest GDP growth in the G7 over that period. But following revisions to the data, it now suggests by that measure that the UK had the joint-fastest growing economy in the first two quarters of 2024, alongside the United States.

The revised Organisation for Economic and Co-operation and Development (OECD) figures show that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1 2024 and by 0.4% in Q2 2024, while the US economy grew by 0.4% in Q1 2024 and by 0.7% in Q2 2024. (In fact, it’s worth noting that unrounded figures show the United States had the slightly higher growth of the two over the two quarters).

Of course, there are different ways of measuring how fast economies are growing or forecast to grow, and we don’t know for sure what figures the Conservative claim is based on. We’ll update this blog if we hear back from the Conservative party. 

Meanwhile in Q3 2024, which broadly aligns with Labour’s first three months in office, the UK saw 0.0% growth. That is the joint-lowest rate in the G7 alongside Italy (though this figure too may be subject to revision in future, and the unrounded figures put Italy slightly behind the UK).

In its election manifesto Labour promised to “secure the highest sustained growth in the G7”. We’re monitoring progress against this pledge in our Government Tracker.