Is Reform UK right to claim ‘illegal migrants’ are 24 times more likely to go to prison?

In a column published by the Daily Mail on Friday, 11 July, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage MP wrote: “One analysis of official figures has found that those who come to Britain illegally are 24 times more likely to finish up in prison.”

His party’s deputy leader Richard Tice MP similarly claimed on X (formerly Twitter): “Illegal migrants are 24 times more likely to end up in prison.”

These claims appear to refer to Conservative party analysis first reported in The Times on 3 July, which claimed that “Channel migrants” were 24 times more likely to go to prison than British citizens. But as we explained in our fact check last week, this figure is not reliable, based on the details reported.

The Conservative analysis reportedly compared 2025 prison data to 2021 population statistics which are likely out of date, and appears to have used data on the imprisonment of foreign nationals in general to draw conclusions about small boat arrivals specifically.

In addition, it’s worth noting that while Mr Farage and Mr Tice’s claims seem to refer to “illegal” or irregular migrants in general, the Conservatives’ figure was reported as being specifically about those arriving by small boats, rather than those arriving in the UK “illegally” via any method of entry.

While tens of thousands of people detected entering the UK irregularly arrive via small boat crossing, thousands are also detected via other routes (for example, in lorries). And, as the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory has noted, it’s difficult to accurately estimate the number of people entering or living in the UK illegally, because many may never be detected.

We’ve contacted Reform UK for comment.