Was the chancellor’s claim about ‘falling’ debt correct?

During today’s Budget, the chancellor Jeremy Hunt said “debt is falling in line with our fiscal rules”. However, as we’ve written before about similar claims, and as others have pointed out today, debt is not currently falling—it is forecast to fall. 

The government’s fiscal rules state that underlying debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP between the fourth and fifth year of the forecast period. 

Underlying public sector net debt, which excludes the Bank of England’s debt and is the measure the government uses in its targets, is currently forecast to peak in 2026-27 and 2027-28 before falling, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). 

The OBR’s most recent forecast, published today following the Budget, says: “Public sector net debt (excluding the Bank of England) in the central forecast rises from 88.8 per cent of GDP this year to a peak of 93.2 per cent of GDP in 2027-28, before falling slightly to 92.9 per cent of GDP in 2028-29.” (The OBR forecasts that debt will first hit the peak of 93.2% of GDP in 2026-27.) 

After the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak wrongly claimed “debt is falling” last November, the UK Statistics Authority warned this claim “may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area”.