Would a returns agreement with the EU mean the UK takes 100,000 migrants?

Home secretary James Cleverly and his Labour party counterpart Yvette Cooper appeared on LBC earlier today, to take part in an immigration debate. 

While discussing which third countries a Labour government could cooperate with when it comes to migration, Mr Cleverly said a returns agreement with the EU “will inevitably mean the UK becomes a net recipient of illegal migrants, we estimate about 100,000”.

While there have been slight variations of this claim, we’ve written about this unreliable figure multiple times since we first heard it back in September. 

It’s based on a Conservative party estimate that makes several assumptions about what a future returns deal between the UK and the EU would look like. It assumes the UK would join the EU’s new migration scheme, which allows the distribution of people from member states with the largest number of arrivals or asylum applicants, to states that have fewer arrivals.

We can’t say for sure what might happen to migration under a future Labour government. But as we’ve said before, the figure of 100,000 is based on inaccurate assumptions about what the EU scheme involves. 

The University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory previously told us: “The claim that a returns deal with the EU would mean the UK accepting 100,000 asylum seekers from Europe is incorrect: there are no two ways about it.

“The EU does not have a policy of equalising the number of asylum applicants across countries, nor is it negotiating one. Even if it did, the number of asylum seekers the UK would receive would be much lower. 

“The 100,000 claim includes a mathematical error, because its authors have forgotten to include the asylum seekers the UK already receives.”

The calculation assumes that a quota system would relocate all asylum applicants arriving in the EU among member states, rather than a small proportion of them. Additionally, EU member states also do not have to accept migrants as part of this scheme—they can contribute financially instead. 

Ms Cooper also said Labour “won’t join the EU member states’ quota scheme”.

We’ve contacted Mr Cleverly, and will update this post if we receive a response.