NHS waiting lists not likely to hit 10 million, IFS says

Labour has claimed NHS waiting lists could rise to 10 million if the Conservatives win the general election. But analysts say lists are likely to “at worst flatline”, whichever party forms the next government.

The Labour party’s claim was widely reported in yesterday’s papers, after it announced its steps to clear the NHS backlog in England in five years.

The latest data from NHS England shows waiting lists were at 7.5 million at the end of March 2024, with an estimated 6.3 million individuals waiting for elective NHS care.

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says Labour’s analysis has predicted a “highly unlikely” outcome.

In its press release, Labour claimed: “Waiting lists have increased by 600,000 over the 17 months Rishi Sunak has been Prime Minister. If they continue to increase at the same rate (1.09) for the next five years, they will exceed 10 million.”

IFS research economist Max Warner said the claim rests on the “very strong assumption” that future NHS performance will remain the same as past performance.

“In reality, the NHS has substantially increased treatment volumes in the past year, and the waiting list has already started to fall,” he said.

“Even in a world where treatment volumes grow more slowly than set out in the NHS workforce plan, our modelling suggests that the waiting list is likely to fall slowly, or at worst flatline, in the coming years. In other words, whichever party forms the next government, waiting lists are highly unlikely to climb to 10 million.”

Full Fact has contacted Labour for more insight into how they reached the figure.

Our NHS waiting list explainer sets out exactly what is happening with NHS waits.