Labour repeats misleading claim that Conservative plans would mean a £4,800 increase in the average mortgage

We’ve seen several repeats today of a misleading claim that the Conservatives’ plans would lead to a £4,800 increase in the average mortgage. 

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that “more Tory recklessness” will “cost families £4,800 more on their mortgages.”

Labour’s X account made the same claim, and in another post shared an image of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on a mock ‘for sale’ sign saying “Rishi’s mega mortgages” alongside “your mortgage up £4,800”. The sign is in the same style as a fake shop front set up by the party in south London, which also features the £4,800 figure.

As we’ve explained several times since it was first used by Labour earlier this month, this is a speculative figure presented as fact, and is therefore misleading.

£4,800 seems to be an estimate of the average annual extra cost of a mortgage at the end of the next parliament. It is based on several uncertain assumptions, and some of the detail of Labour’s workings remains unclear.

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has warned that presenting figures without full context may “damage trust in the data and the claims these data inform.”

We’ve contacted the Labour party about their use of this figure and will update this post if we receive a response.