Treasury minister interview causes confusion over UK debt forecast

An interview with chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott MP yesterday caused confusion after she appeared to disagree with BBC Radio 4’s PM presenter Evan Davis’ claim that debt would be higher in five years time than it is now.

And the fallout from the interview has continued today, with Ms Trott trending on X (formerly Twitter) and widespread media coverage of the exchange. 

Figures published in November by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) show that underlying debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to be 89.0% this financial year (2023/24), and 92.8% in five years time (2028/29)—so 3.8 percentage points higher. 

Underlying debt is the measure the government uses in its fiscal rules, which state that underlying debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP between the fourth and fifth year of the forecast period. It excludes the Bank of England’s debt.

Mr Davis quoted these figures multiple times in the interview, but Ms Trott appeared to repeatedly suggest debt was not rising “as a percentage of GDP”.

It’s possible that some confusion may have arisen from the fact that Ms Trott was initially referring to the fiscal rules mentioned above, while Mr Davis seems to have been referring to whether debt would be higher at the end of the forecast period than it is currently.

As was noted in the interview, OBR figures do show that underlying debt is forecast to begin falling at the end of the period—peaking at 93.2% in 2027/28 before falling to 92.8% the following year.

This means that the government is currently forecast to be meeting its fiscal target, even though debt will be higher in five years’ time than it is currently.

We’ve written a full fact check about the exchange, which you can read here.