Daily Mail corrects report about Reform UK’s disputed immigration savings
An article published by the Daily Mail last week claimed that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage MP said ending Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) for migrants would “save £234 billion that would be paid out in benefits for them and their dependants in the coming decades”.
This is not what this figure refers to, and we’re grateful to the Daily Mail for correcting its article after we got in touch. The figure is actually Reform UK’s estimate of the overall net savings to taxpayers, not just on benefits—though the figure is disputed and based on a now-withdrawn think tank estimate.
Full Fact understands the reference in the Daily Mail’s story was based on an opinion column written by Mr Farage for the Mail last month, in which he said: “Under Reform, welfare will only be for UK citizens. No foreign nationals will be entitled to any benefits. Our changes will save British taxpayers at least £234 billion over the lifetime of these migrants.”
On 22 September, in a press conference outlining his party’s policy to end ILR, and in doing so prevent foreign nationals from claiming benefits, both Mr Farage and head of Reform UK’s Department of Government Efficiency Zia Yusuf referred to this figure as the amount migrants would cost the UK. But we’ve not found any evidence of Mr Farage directly saying this figure referred solely to benefits payments.
The £234 billion figure comes from a report published earlier this year by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), which the think tank has subsequently withdrawn. In a press release the CPS said: “After the CPS’ report was published, the Office for Budget Responsibility revised their definitions of some of the fiscal data contained within our report, meaning that the overall cost estimates should no longer be used.”
The now-withdrawn £234 billion was not an estimate of the cost of benefits payments to migrants, but rather an estimate of the net lifetime fiscal cost of the roughly 800,000 migrants the CPS estimated could receive ILR in the coming years.
The CPS told Full Fact that benefits payments would “constitute only a fraction” of this estimated cost. Because the £234 billion figure has now been withdrawn, we’ve not looked at how much of this estimate might be due to benefits payments. The CPS said it plans to publish updated figures based on the revised data “in due course”.
Net lifetime fiscal cost estimates take into account the contribution a person may be expected to make to public finances over their lifetime (through paying taxes), as well as the amount they may be expected to cost the government (through accessing public services, including the welfare system but also other things like healthcare and education).
The government does not routinely publish data on the amount spent on welfare payments for migrants (and it’s worth noting that different people may have different definitions of who this group includes). But data obtained earlier this year by Conservative MP Neil O’Brien reportedly showed that a total of £941 million in Universal Credit payments was made to households with at least one foreign national in March 2025