How close do the polls put Reform UK to the Conservatives?

On the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg this morning, Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader and candidate for the seat of Clacton, claimed “right now we’re just two to three points behind the Conservatives”.

As was suggested by Laura Kuenssberg towards the end of the show, this is a selective take on what the polls are currently showing. 

Of the polls we’ve seen, there have been three where the gap between the two parties was that small. YouGov’s from 3-4 June had the Conservatives on 19% and Reform UK on 17%. Its latest poll from 5-6 June shows Reform UK dropping one percentage point to 16% while the Conservatives remained on 19%. And another poll which shows the Conservatives within two to three points is Redfield and Wilton's from 5-6 June, which also has the Conservatives on 19% and Reform UK on 17%. 

However, there have been a number of other polls which show a wider gap. 

For instance, Deltapoll from 6-8 June puts the Conservatives on 21% and Reform UK on 12%, while Whitestone Insight from 7 June has the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 16%, WeThink from 6-7 June reports Conservatives on 20% and Reform UK on 15%, Opinium from 5-7 June has the Conservatives on 24% and Reform UK on 12%, and Savanta from 5-7 June reports the Conservatives on 26% and Reform UK on 11%. 

Speaking on the programme, Mr Farage said he had concerns over how some pollsters prompted for Reform UK when recording voting intention. We have contacted Reform UK for comment and will update this post if we receive a response.

Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore