Repeated claims circulate with general election just hours away

With just hours to go until polls open we’ve seen both Labour and the Conservatives repeat claims that are either misleading or could do with important context.

In a statement picked up by local and national newspapers late on 2 July, Labour said Prime Minister and Conservative leader Rishi Sunak’s “unfunded manifesto” would mean “£4,800 more on people’s mortgages, NHS waiting lists rocketing to 10 million, and family finances hit further”. 

But as we’ve explained several times since Labour first used it last month, the £4,800 claim is a speculative figure presented as fact, and is therefore misleading.

£4,800 seems to be an estimate of the average annual extra cost of a mortgage at the end of the next parliament. It is based on several uncertain assumptions, and some of the detail of Labour’s workings remains unclear.

The UK Statistics Authority has warned that presenting figures without full context may “damage trust in the data and the claims these data inform”.

Labour’s other claim, that NHS waiting lists could reach 10 million under the Conservatives, is also one we’ve fact checked before. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says Labour’s analysis has predicted a “highly unlikely” outcome, with analysts saying the waiting list is likely to fall slowly or “at worst flatline”, whichever party forms the next government.

On the broadcast round for the Conservatives today (3 July), work and pensions secretary Mel Stride repeated two claims on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that could do with additional context.

He said [1:36:34]: “If you take education for example, we’re the best readers now in the western world”.

As we’ve written about before, this is correct for England according to the results of one international study of nine to ten-year-olds in 2022, but according to another measure pupils which looked at 15-year-old pupils, Ireland, Canada and the US were better readers than their counterparts in England.

Mr Stride also said [1:36:37]: “Ofsted rated schools, 68% of them when we came to power as good or outstanding, that figure is now above 90%.”

While this figure is technically accurate for England, as we explained last month, changes to the way schools are inspected since 2010 means that a direct comparison between these two time periods is difficult. 

It is true, according to the latest data published by Ofsted, that 90% of schools are good or outstanding. This compares to 68% in 2010, when the Labour party was last in government. 

However, as Ofsted’s methodology explains, a number of factors affect the comparability of the most recent inspection outcomes for all schools and should “be used with caution”. 

But the UK’s statistics regulator, the Office for Statistics Regulation, stopped short of calling the claim misleading, saying it could be a useful indicator.

We’ve previously contacted Labour and the Conservatives about these claims and will update this post if we receive a response.