Did Robert Jenrick institute ‘the biggest reduction in net migration of all time’?

During an interview on Good Morning Britain today, Conservative MP and former immigration minister Robert Jenrick said his “personal record” was “instituting the biggest reduction in net migration of all time”.

He added: “I persuaded the Prime Minister to put in place measures that will reduce the number of people coming into this country by 300,000.”

Mr Jenrick’s comments refer to a series of measures announced in December last year. The government has estimated that had these measures been in place, together with previously announced restrictions on international students bringing dependants, around 300,000 people who came to the UK in the year to September 2023 would not have been able to come.

It’s important to note though that these are government estimates of what the impact of the new measures might be. A 300,000 fall in net migration would likely represent a record reduction, in recent years at least, but clearly the actual impact of the measures may be different, and we don’t yet know that they will result in “the biggest reduction in net migration of all time”.

The measures announced in December include:

• stopping overseas care workers from bringing family dependants and requiring care providers to register with the Care Quality Commission if they are sponsoring migrants
• increasing the skilled workers visa earning threshold from £26,200 to £38,700
• increasing the minimum income requirement threshold in stages for family visas
• reforming the Shortage Occupation List and ending the 20% going rate salary discount for shortage occupations.

The government’s detailed estimates for the impact of each measure can be found here. While the eventual impact of these measures is yet to be seen, last week the government said the number of people applying for skilled worker, health and care and study visas in the first three months of 2024 was down by 24% on the same period last year.

Meanwhile, provisional figures show that estimated net migration did fall during Mr Jenrick’s time as immigration minister, but not by a record amount.