How many people on the NHS waiting list are long-term sick?

During the BBC debate on Wednesday night between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, an audience member told both men that she used to work but had had to stop due to illness. 

Following that question, Mr Starmer said “if we are going to get people back into work is we have to tackle these terrible waiting lists”. Later, Mr Sunak challenged this saying: “most of the people who we’re talking about […] aren't on an NHS waiting list.” 

We've also been asked on X about how many people are out of work and also on the NHS waiting list. 

The NHS does not publish figures for how many people on the waiting list are in employment or classed as long-term sick so it cannot prove whether the claims by Mr Sunak or Mr Starmer are correct.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated in 2022 that there were 650,000 people who were economically inactive—defined as people not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks—due to long term sickness on the NHS waiting list, which was a quarter of the long-term sick inactive population. 

An Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey conducted between 16 January and 15 February 2024, found that 49% of people who are economically inactive due to long term sickness said they were waiting for a hospital appointment, test or to start receiving medical treatment through the NHS. 

However, this is not the same as the main NHS waiting list which only covers consultant-led care. Those who said they are waiting for care could be waiting for follow-up appointments, mental health or community services, none of which are counted in the waiting list. 

However, the OBR said last year that “the rising NHS waiting list itself is unlikely to have been a significant driver of rising inactivity due to long-term sickness in recent years”.