Is the ‘tax burden’ at the highest level in 70 years?

Over the weekend both Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Murray MP claimed that the “tax burden” was at its highest in 70 years.

We saw this claim being made by various Labour figures throughout the election campaign earlier this year, when referring to the so-called ‘tax burden’ (tax revenue as a percentage of GDP).

As we’ve explained previously, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), this was the case in 2022/23 when the tax burden reached 36.3%—the highest level since 1949 (when it stood at 36.9%) and the second highest since records began in 1948, when the tax burden was 37.2%. 

It’s since fallen slightly in 2023/24 to 36.1%. But current OBR forecasts—which are based on the previous government’s confirmed plans—show the tax burden is set to increase in each of the next five years, reaching 37.1% in 2028/29. That would be the second highest level on record.

However, it’s worth noting that under Labour’s plans the Institute for Fiscal Studies says the tax burden would increase at a slightly higher rate than under current OBR forecasts, reaching 37.4% by 2028/29. This would be the highest level on record.