Migration is projected to lead to another five million people living in the UK in just seven years.
This isn’t correct. The UK’s population is projected to increase by 4.9 million over a 10 year period—between mid-2022 and mid-2032. In the seven-year period between mid-2025 and mid-2032, the projected increase is 2.6 million. It is correct that migration is projected to entirely account for this increase.
“Shocking projections have revealed migration will lead to another five million people living in the UK in just seven years. The population will surge to 72.5 million—up from 67.6 million—by 2032, heaping more pressure on the NHS, housing, roads and schools.”
An Express article last week claimed projections show that “migration will lead to another five million people living in the UK in just seven years”. This claim also featured in a post sharing the article on the Express’ X (formerly Twitter) account.
But this figure isn’t correct. The article cites population projections published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2025, which show that the UK’s population is projected to increase from 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 72.5 million in mid-2032—so by 4.9 million over a 10 year period, not over seven years as the article claims.
Between mid-2025 and mid-2032 (a seven year period) the population is projected to increase by 2.6 million, according to the ONS, while between mid-2024 and mid-2032 (an eight year period) the population is projected to increase by approximately 3.3 million.
About one-third of the overall 4.9 million increase is projected to have already occurred between mid-2022 and mid-2024.
However, the Express was correct in saying that net migration is projected to account entirely for the UK’s population growth over this period, with deaths projected to slightly exceed births between mid-2022 and mid-2032.
When talking about these figures it’s important to be clear that they are projections (which are based on assumptions made from current and past trends), not forecasts (which assess how trends might change in the future). The ONS says: “Our assumptions are based on current and past demographic behaviours (births, deaths and migration) and trends. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the possible effects of any future political or economic developments.”
This claim was identified using Full Fact’s AI tools. We’ve contacted the Daily Express for comment and will update this fact check if we receive a response.
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