£30 billion estimated cost of troubled families doesn't come from the government

When the government first announced its Troubled Families programme, launched to help an estimated 120,000 families, it said these families were costing about £9 billion a year. In June last year the government announced it was extending the programme to a further 400,000 families.

Following an interview over the weekend with Head of the programme, Louise Casey, the Sunday Times (£) has reported that this expansion "will bring the combined total cost to above £30bn".

There have been mixed messages in today's media about the source of the figure. If you've read today's Mail you might think the figure comes from a "major study which reveals for the first time the true extent of the rise of Britain's underclass" and if you've read the Guardian you might think it's "new government figures".

It's actually an estimate that's been made by the Sunday Times. The author told us it's based on a working assumption of the second tier of troubled families costing about two thirds of the first tier cost (£75,000), informed by guidance given by professionals, government sources, and responses to Freedom of Information requests submitted by the newspaper.

We've previously looked at the difficulties associated with estimating the cost of these families. We're currently investigating the assumptions behind the latest claim and hope to publish more detail shortly.