Is the 'Great Recession' officially over?

Today's Times front page claims that "It's official: the Great Recession has ended".

However the figures referenced in the article aren't "official" estimates at all: they are produced by the respected think tank the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which show that the UK's economic output will grow past it's pre-recession peak "in the next few months".

NIESR estimates have in the past proved a good guide (although not perfect) for what official GDP estimates are likely to show.

However the next bulletin from the ONS on growth is not due until 22nd May, and even then the figures will be preliminary estimates, so likely subject to further revision themselves.

We've noticed in recent months that some newspapers have pre-empted official GDP releases by presenting 'expert estimates' as fact. By presenting this latest expert analysis as "official" the Times is unlikely to have helped the public's understanding of the way in which the ONS produces and releases its key economic metric.

NIESR also draws a distinction between a 'recession' (where the economy is shrinking, usually for at least two quarters) and a 'depression' (the period an economy takes to recover from a recession), which has seemingly been missed by the Times' headline. NIESR pointed out in September that: "the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time."