Sarah Jones the latest minister to repeat inaccurate claim about UK’s projected growth

Industry minister Sarah Jones MP last week claimed: “The International Monetary Fund and the OECD predict that the UK will be Europe’s fastest-growing economy over the next few years.”

We’ve fact checked versions of this claim made by several government ministers in recent weeks, and Ms Jones’ claim was identified by Full Fact’s AI tools. As we’ve explained, this isn’t what the latest projections from these organisations show, and Ms Jones’ office has now told Full Fact she will correct the record.

Figures published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January project that the UK’s GDP will increase by 1.6% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026, but that both Spain (2.3% and 1.8%) and Poland (3.5% and 3.3%) will have higher GDP growth in both years. The Netherlands is projected to have similar GDP growth to the UK in 2025 (1.6%) and higher growth in 2026 (1.8%).

In December, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also projected that several European countries will have higher GDP growth in both 2025 and 2026 than the UK (1.7% and 1.3%), including Spain (2.3% and 2%), Denmark (2.5% and 1.7%) and Poland (3.4% and 3%).

2026 is the latest year for which these organisations have published projections and we’ve not seen any other comments from the IMF or OECD to support Ms Jones’ claim.

It’s possible Ms Jones meant to say that the UK was projected to have the fastest growth among European economies in the G7. The IMF and the OECD’s latest figures both project that the UK will have faster growth than France, Germany and Italy—the other three European countries in the group. 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves and other government ministers have said previously that the UK is projected to be the fastest growing “major” European economy.