The IMF and the OECD both say the UK will be the fastest growing European economy in the years ahead.
That isn’t what the latest projections from those organisations show. Several European countries are projected to have faster growth than the UK in 2025 and 2026, though the UK is projected to have the fastest growth of the four European countries in the G7.
“The IMF and the OECD both say we're going to be the fastest growing European economy in the years ahead”.
On Sky News on Thursday morning (13 February), housing minister Matthew Pennycook MP claimed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) both say the UK is “going to be the fastest growing European economy in the years ahead”.
As we’ve explained when other government ministers have made similar claims in recent weeks, this isn’t what the latest projections from these organisations show.
Figures published by the IMF in January project that the UK’s GDP will increase by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, but that both Spain (2.3% and 1.8%) and Poland (3.5% and 3.3%) will have higher GDP growth in both years. The Netherlands is projected to have similar GDP growth in 2025 (1.6%) and higher growth in 2026 (1.8%).
The OECD also projects several European countries will have higher GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 than the UK, including Spain (2.3% and 2%), Denmark (2.5% and 1.7%) and Poland (3.4% and 3%).
2026 is the latest year for which these organisations have published projections and we’ve not seen any other comments from the IMF or OECD to support Mr Pennycook’s claim.
It’s possible Mr Pennycook intended to say that the UK was projected to have the fastest growth among European economies in the G7. Both the IMF and the OECD project that the UK will have faster growth than France, Germany and Italy—the other three European countries in the group.
If an MP makes a false or misleading claim on broadcast media they should take responsibility for ensuring it is appropriately corrected, and make efforts to ensure the correction is publicly available to anyone who might have heard the claim. We’ve contacted Mr Pennycook and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government for comment. We will update this article if we receive a response.
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