What does the pledge mean? 

This pledge is framed as the publication of a plan outlining when defence spending as a proportion of GDP will increase. So whether or not it’s been achieved will depend on whether the “path to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence” has been published, rather than whether the government actually achieves this spending target by a specific date.

‘Defence spending’ in this context is broader than just the Ministry of Defence (MOD) budget. The government has told Full Fact that it refers to all defence spending, including some things outside the MOD’s budget, but within the definitions of NATO qualifying spend. This includes spending on things such as armed forces pensions and the Integrated Security Fund, a fund for projects that aim to help tackle threats to UK security. 

Labour’s manifesto did not specify any timescale for it publishing this “path”, but the terms of reference for the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) said that this “will be dealt with at a future fiscal event”.

We’ve written before about UK defence spending as a proportion of GDP. 

NATO members first agreed in 2006 to spend 2% of their GDP on NATO-qualifying defence, then reaffirmed this commitment in 2014. The UK has met this target consistently, and has spent 2.3% of GDP on defence for each of the last three years.

In April 2024, the then-Conservative government committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030. It said this figure would set “a new standard for other major European NATO economies to follow” and help deter “growing threats” from countries such as Russia, Iran and China. However Labour has not committed to the same timeframe.

What progress has been made?

The “path” to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence has not yet been published—it’s expected in spring 2025, according to the government.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told reporters in July 2024 that he was committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence, but that the strategic review “needs to come first”. 

The government announced its SDR later that month, and it is expected to report “in the first half of 2025”. 

A government press release in July said the review “will set out a roadmap to achieving 2.5% of GDP on defence”. However the MOD clarified to Full Fact that “the SDR publication isn’t necessarily tied to the laying out of the path to spending 2.5% GDP on defence”.

In September 2024, armed forces minister Luke Pollard confirmed: “The Treasury will set out the path to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence at a future fiscal event.”