How many migrants come to the UK?

Immigration has consistently been one of the most debated topics in UK politics in recent years, including during the 2024 general election campaign. 

Both Labour and the Conservative party have argued that current levels of immigration are too high, with Labour pledging in its election manifesto to “reduce net migration”. Migration has also been reported as one of the key factors behind recent disorder and rioting in the UK (although as we and others have written, there are likely to be a range of underlying causes).  

This explainer looks at how migration to the UK is measured, how net migration has changed in recent years, and why it is not expected to remain at its current near-record level.

This explainer is one of a series Full Fact is publishing exploring a range of key political topics. We’ll be updating these articles on a regular basis—this article was last updated on 15 August 2024 and the information in it is correct as of then.

How is migration to the UK measured?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) currently publishes estimates of long-term international immigration to, and emigration from, the UK based on administrative data. 

Subtracting the number of emigrants from the number of immigrants over a given period produces a figure for “net migration”. Net migration figures are perhaps those most commonly cited when talking about UK immigration policy, though Oxford University’s Migration Observatory says that the UK is “unusual in its choice to use net migration in policy debates as the main measure for discussing migration levels”.

The ONS defines a “long-term international migrant” as someone who has changed their country of usual residence for a period of at least a year (based on the UN’s recommended definition).

Current migration figures are based on a relatively new method of measuring annual migration flows (the number of long-term international migrants over a year) using administrative data. Because this method is still in development, the figures are designated as “experimental statistics” by the UK Statistics Authority, as opposed to “national statistics”.

This data series goes back to June 2012. Previous estimates for long-term international migration were based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS), data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) on international migration through Northern

Ireland, and Home Office data. This data was published by the ONS from 1991 to 2020. An even earlier set of migration data, based solely on the IPS, dates back to 1964.

Net migration is currently at near-record levels…

According to the most recent estimates from the ONS, around 1.2 million long-term immigrants arrived in the UK in 2023.

In 2023, emigration from the UK totalled an estimated 532,000, meaning net migration to the UK was estimated to be 685,000. 

This represents a 10% fall compared to 2022, when net migration to the UK was the highest on record at 764,000. (We saw a number of contrasting claims about these figures during the election from Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, which often didn’t tell the full story.) But net migration in 2023 was still nearly four times higher than in 2019, when the Conservative party said in its manifesto it would bring down “overall numbers”. 

It’s worth noting that these annual net migration estimates may be revised at a later date. For example, the initial estimate for net migration in 2022 was 606,000—substantially lower than the revised estimate.

The ONS has described a “marked change” in immigration patterns since 2021, saying: “The ending of free movement of those from the European Union coupled with the introduction of a new immigration system in January 2021, easing of restrictions after the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and external events such as the war in Ukraine have all had an impact.”

In the decade prior to the Covid-19 pandemic net migration figures had fluctuated, but with the exception of 2020 (when travel patterns were heavily disrupted due the the pandemic), were consistently above 150,000 per year.

Based on ONS administrative data, net migration between 2012 and 2023 totalled 3.95 million.

Looking back further, IPS-based figures show net migration was broadly negative in the 1960s and 1970s (in other words, more people were leaving the country than arriving), but was increasing by the mid-1990s. Since 1994, more people have arrived in the UK than have left every year, and net migration has not fallen below 100,000 since 1998, other than during the pandemic.

However it’s not true, as Reform UK claimed during the election, that under the previous government more migrants arrived in the UK in two years than “between 1066 and 2010”.

… but is expected to fall considerably in the coming years

Although net migration has been at historic highs over the past two years, forecasts suggest it is likely to fall in the coming years. 

In its most recent publication, the ONS noted a recent increase in emigration, and a decrease in visa applications, but cautioned that it was “too early to say” if the decrease in net migration in 2023 compared to the previous year marked “the start of a new downward trend”.

That being said, ONS projections published in January estimate that annual net migration will decrease from the current level (685,000) to around 315,000 from 2027/28, though note: “There is uncertainty over future directions and levels of international migration.”

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that net migration will average “around 350,000 a year” over the next five years.

Both these figures are higher than previously forecast, but clearly considerably lower than current annual levels.

A number of explanations for this relative decrease have been put forward. In analysis published in December 2023, the Migration Observatory suggested that high levels of immigration in recent years would eventually lead to increased emigration, noting that “most migrants come to the UK for periods of only a few years, before emigrating again”.

The OBR says this is also a factor in its forecasts, stating: “The recent rise in immigration, especially among students, should lead to higher emigration in the short term.” It also considers the impact of policy changes introduced by the previous government restricting the ability of some immigrants to bring dependents, saying “immigration policy changes announced… will likely significantly reduce inflows in the near term.”

Provisional Home Office figures published in August showed that applications for some visas impacted by these changes—most notably for health and care worker dependents—had fallen in July 2024 compared to July 2023 (though had increased compared to the previous month).

Finally both the Migration Observatory and the ONS note that arrivals to the UK under humanitarian visas (primarily those from Ukraine and Hong Kong) have already decreased compared to 2022—when more than 160,000 people migrated to the UK via these routes—and are expected to “continue to decline in future”.

Despite the projected fall in annual net migration levels, however, immigration is still forecast to increase the overall population of the UK over the next few years. As we wrote in a recent fact check, the ONS has projected that total net migration over the next 12 years will be around 4.5 million.

Who is migrating to the UK?

In 2023, the vast majority of people who migrated to the UK (85%) were non-EU nationals. Ten percent were EU nationals, with the remaining 5% British nationals. The top-five non-EU countries of origin were India (250,000 migrants), Nigeria (141,000), China (90,000), Pakistan (83,000) and Zimbabwe (36,000).

Between 2012 (when the current set of ONS migration statistics was first published) and 2018, net migration to the UK from the EU exceeded non-EU national net migration. However the number of EU immigrants has been falling since 2016, and net migration from the EU has actually been negative since 2021 (when free movement ended following Britain’s exit from the EU), meaning more EU nationals are leaving the UK than arriving.

According to the House of Commons Library, work was the most common reason for both EU and non-EU migration to the UK in 2023, accounting for 48% and 41% of immigration from these groups respectively (including dependents of main visa applicants).

It’s also notable that for non-EU immigrants, the number of dependents of people arriving for work surpassed main work visa applicants for the first time.

The second most common reason for non-EU immigration was study, while 16% of EU nationals migrating to the UK did so to study. Around 8% of non-EU nationals arrived in the UK to seek asylum.

The majority of migrants to the UK arrive here legally. However the number of migrants arriving via irregular methods (particularly by small boats) has increased considerably in recent years.

The ONS does not publish data on the proportion of migrants who arrive in the UK “legally” or “illegally”. However Home Office data shows that in 2023 there were 36,704 irregular arrivals, 80% of whom arrived on small boats.

The majority of small boat arrivals (around 90%) claim asylum in the UK, and in the year ending June 2023 (the latest for which data is available) these claims accounted for just over a third of asylum claims in the UK.The ONS has said “by its very nature it is impossible to quantify accurately the number of people who are in the country illegally”, but added: “While ONS data do not identify illegal migrants separately, many will be included in the data. Those who overstay their visa would have been counted in ONS immigration figures by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) when they originally entered the country and those who arrived illegally and then subsequently claimed asylum will also be included.”

How does migration to the UK compare internationally?

The Migration Observatory suggests that the UK has experienced “broadly similar levels of migration compared to other high-income countries, on average, over the past few decades”. 

Measuring the impact of migration by comparing the size of the foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population, the Observatory found that the share of foreign-born residents in the UK was similar to other ‘high-income’ countries such as the US and the Netherlands. Both the UK and US foreign-born population share was 14% in 2022, coming in at 15% in the Netherlands.

This is slightly higher than France (13%), but lower than Spain (16%) and Germany (17%).