What does the pledge mean?

Net migration refers to the difference between the numbers of people coming to the UK to live (immigration), compared to the numbers of people leaving the UK to live elsewhere (emigration).

When net migration is positive—meaning more people are immigrating than emigrating—this adds to the UK’s population, which the latest data estimates was around 69.5 million people in mid-2025.

Estimates of long-term international migration are published twice a year by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). A ‘long-term international migrant’ is defined as someone who has moved country of residence for a period of at least 12 months, so these figures exclude those entering the UK for a short period of time, such as workers on a six-month seasonal worker visa, students enrolled for courses of less than a year, and visitors who require a visa.

Estimates are currently produced using a combination of data sources, including border and visa data, travel information, and tax data, though it’s worth noting that this method is relatively new, and currently still in development. Net migration estimates are currently published with a roughly five-month lag, and are subject to revision as more data becomes available and as methods improve.

Labour’s manifesto did not set a specific target level to reduce net migration to, nor a specific timeframe over which this reduction would be measured. But in May 2025, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he wanted to reduce net migration “significantly” by the end of the parliament, without committing to a specific figure.

We have asked the Home Office for clarification on this and will update this article if we get a response.

What progress has been made?

The most recent ONS data shows net migration was provisionally estimated to be 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, down 48% from 331,000 the year before (though provisional figures may be revised at a later date). As a result, we’re rating Labour’s pledge to reduce net migration as “appears on track”.

Immigration was estimated to be 813,000, a decrease of approximately 20% from 1,012,000 in the year ending December 2024, while over the same period emigration is estimated to have decreased by 5.5%, from 680,000 to 642,000.

The ONS said the main reason for the continued fall in net migration was a decrease in the number of non-EU+ nationals arriving for work-related reasons. It also said the fall in total immigration “may be partly” because of immigration rule changes introduced in 2024 and 2025.

Since taking office the Labour government has announced a number of changes to immigration rules.

In May 2025 it released an immigration white paper which proposes eight key changes including an end to international recruitment of care workers, stricter English language requirements on a range of immigration routes, and reducing the number of occupations eligible for a Skilled Worker visa.

A government assessment of these changes estimated that they could reduce immigration to the UK by up to around 100,000 a year, although it stressed this figure was only indicative, as it relied on a number of assumptions about behavioural changes.

In November 2025, the government launched a consultation on earned settlement, as well as proposed changes to asylum and resettlement policy.

It’s too soon to say how the government’s current and proposed policies will impact net migration—though it’s worth noting that even prior to Labour unveiling these measures projections suggested net migration was already set to fall from the record levels seen in 2023.