What was claimed
Almost 1% of, or one in 100, people crossing the Channel in small boats are dying.
Our verdict
Incorrect—the actual figure is much less. Recorded figures suggest there’s been around one death per 1,190 small boat arrivals between 2018 and 2025.
Discussing small boat crossings in the English Channel in an interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday, Reform UK’s home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf claimed that “almost 1%, one in 100, of people making this journey are dying”.
That’s not correct. The data we have suggests the ratio of deaths to small boat arrivals is closer to 1 in 1,000.
According to the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, between 2018 and 2025 a total of 162 people are known to have died attempting a small boat crossing in the Channel.
The total number of small boat arrivals over the same period was 192,610, suggesting that deaths were equivalent to approximately 0.084% of recorded arrivals over this period—around 1 death per 1,190 arrivals.
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The Migration Observatory told Full Fact it had counted 17 deaths related to small boat crossings so far in 2026, which would be approximately 0.11% of small boat arrivals as of 2 August.
It’s worth noting the figures for total recorded arrivals don’t include unsuccessful attempted crossings that were intercepted by French authorities, while the Migration Observatory says its deaths data “may understate the true toll, as not all incidents are reported”. We’ve looked at the ratio of deaths to arrivals because we don’t know how many people included in the interceptions figures published by the Home Office may have made multiple attempts to cross the Channel.
Mr Yusuf did say earlier in his interview that “north of 170” people had died crossing the Channel, which is broadly correct. We’ve contacted Reform UK for comment.
Update 7 August 2026
We’ve updated this fact check with further detail on some of the limitations of the available data.
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