At Prime Minister’s Questions last week the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer claimed: “9,400 people who have no right to be here have been returned. That is a 30% increase on the numbers of last year.”
The 9,400 figure seems to refer to the number of enforced and voluntary returns of people with no right to be in the UK between 5 July and 28 October 2024. This figure was published by the Home Office in an ad-hoc data release on 4 November. But the Home Office has not published the corresponding figure for the same period in 2023, which means we’re unable to verify the second part of Mr Starmer’s claim.
This isn’t the first time we’ve been unable to find published data to support a claim the Prime Minister has made about immigration returns. In October the Home Office published ad-hoc returns data after Full Fact got in touch about unpublished data used by Mr Starmer in his Labour party conference speech.
When Full Fact asked the Home Office about Mr Starmer’s latest claim, it said it could only point us to its latest published data—which does not appear to substantiate it—and directed us to Number 10. Number 10 did not respond to our request for comment.
Ministers and political leaders must provide evidence for what they say and it’s important that happens in this case. They should ensure that any statistics and data they rely on to back up their claims are provided publicly in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics or relevant guidance.
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What published data do we have?
The Home Office’s latest ad-hoc data release which features the 9,400 figure shows that of those returns, 2,590 were enforced returns. The release also states that there were 2,170 enforced returns in the same period (ie, between 5 July and 28 October) in 2023, and that the number of enforced returns has therefore increased by 19%.
The release also states that 1,520 of the enforced and voluntary returns were of foreign national offenders, and that there were 1,330 such returns in the same period last year—an increase of 14%.
But the release does not give any figure for the total number of enforced and voluntary returns between 5 July 2023 and 28 October 2023, or state what the increase in that overall number has been, so does not substantiate Mr Starmer’s claim.
It’s worth noting the ad-hoc data release warns its figures are “subject to upward revision” and that recent figures may undercount the total number of returns.
The latest official immigration statistics, meanwhile, cover returns up to the end of September 2024.
These figures show that between 1 July and 30 September 2024 there were a total of 8,308 enforced and voluntary returns—a 16% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
Enforced returns increased by 29% compared to the same period in 2023, while voluntary returns increased by 12% compared to the same period in 2023.
It’s impossible for us to say from the available data whether Mr Starmer’s claim is correct. Given we know there was a 16% year-on-year increase in enforced and voluntary returns for the period 1 July to 30 September, a 30% increase for the period 5 July to 28 October would suggest a very different rate of returns either at the start of July or in October. But we can’t say for sure what happened as we just don’t have comparable figures.
The 9,400 figure does represent a 30% increase on the number of returns carried out between July and September 2023, but this is not a comparison of like-for-like time periods.