71% of 16- and 17-year-olds voted 'yes'—based on 14 responses

19 September 2014

Various media sources and Twitter users have today reported on the results of a poll by Lord Ashcroft, which showed that 71% of 16- and 17-year-old respondents said they voted Yes to independence. However, this figure (available in underlying data tables) is based on just 14 responses in this age group - that's ten yes-voters. Such a small sample means there's a huge range of uncertainty around the estimate, so it's impossible to say whether this figure is representative of the actual proportion.

ashcroft poll small sample 2

The proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds that said they had voted yes (based on a more robust 98 cases) was 51%. Since ballots are anonymous, there's no way of knowing for sure how different sections of the population voted, in particular 16- and 17-year-olds who were able to vote for the first time.


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