Boris Johnson needs to clarify crime statistics claim

Boris Johnson this morning announced his intention to stand for re-election as the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London in 2012, as Labour prepares to announce who it will be putting forward in the hope of unseating him.   With Labour hopefuls Oona King and Ken Livingstone both upping the ante with attacks on the incumbent Mayor's record, Mr Johnson took the opportunity to mount a defence of his achievements in City Hall, particularly on the issue of crime.   The Mayor said in a message to supporters (reproduced on his campaign website) that "crime overall is so far down by about six per cent, transport crime is down by an astonishing 30 per cent, and the murder rate in London is now down to rates not seen since 1978."   Having previously looked at youth crime in the capital, Full Fact decided to probe these latest claims in more depth, but immediately ran into difficulties.   Neither Conservative Campaign Headquarters nor the Mayor's press office have thus far been able to provide us with contact details for Mr Johnson's campaign, so we are unable to clarify the sources or timeframe used.   However looking at the evidence, it is difficult to see how the Mayor's figures add up.   According to the Home Office's 'Crime in England and Wales' annual report, there were just over 835,000 crimes committed in Greater London in the 2009/10 financial year. This compares to nearly 870,000 in 2007/08, the last full year before Mr Johnson's election. This would represent a fall of 3.95 per cent, some way short of the six per cent identified by the Mayor.

Similarly, Full Fact struggled to match the '30 per cent' reduction in crime on London's transport network with the available data. British Transport Police figures show that 58,775 offences were registered in the capital during the last financial year, compared to the 65,396 recorded in the year before Mr Johnson took over the Mayorality, a fall of 10.1 per cent.

Boris Johnson's final contention — that the capital's murder rate is at its lowest since 1978 — seems to have stronger support from the figures we've seen. Whilst the Metropolitan Police only currently publish homicide data going back to the turn of the century, there has been a steady decline since 2004 (when 204 murders were recorded) to present, with 113 murders recorded in 2009/10.   As things stand, however, it is difficult for Full Fact to verify or contest Boris Johnson's claims, as we do not have enough information about the sources and time period that he is using. This further highlights the need for politicians to be as transparent as possible when using statistics. We hope that Mr Johnson will be able to clarify his remarks, and will report back once we have more information.