Express house price reports: Change we can believe in?

Last week Full Fact showed how the Daily Express had taken what could be at best described as an over optimistic interpretation of house price forecasts.

Splashing on the news that House Prices were set to "surge", the paper had selectively quoted economists to make the story fit the headline.

Today the paper tells us that homeowners can, on average, look forward to an extra £10,000 being added to the value of their house over the course of 2011.

Past experience meant we had little option but to check where this latest bit of blue sky thinking came from.

This time, it seems there is a bit more to stand the story up.

The figure comes from the latest report on house price data, by the firm Assetz, who describe their report as "the only fully inclusive summary of UK house price data".

Assetz warn that in early 2011 house prices "may continue to pull back slightly" early in the year.

But nevertheless Chief Executive Stuart Law does indeed forecast the five percent rise for 2011 detailed in the Express report. Combining this with the £195,000 average house price figure given in the report, this roughly works out to the £10,000 rise used by the Express — though of course significant variations across the country.

So, at last, the Express has its story on house price rises — but this only seems to highlight the divergences that appear whenever economists indulge in the business of forecasting.

After all, one of the economists quoted in the previous piece suggested prices could be 10 per cent of their 2010 peak by the end of this year. It should be noted that the Assetz website makes clear that Mr Law likes to "to take a longer-term and independent view of the market."

"He often forms opinions counter to the market-view of the day, and uses the advantage of being close to the property market to provide insights not always clear to other onlookers," the website states.

We have no reason to say that one set of forecasts is any more valid than an other, and it is worth noting that the figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showing a negative outlook among survey respondents only dealt with the coming three months, rather than anything up to the end of the year.

So while there may not be complete agreement on what 2011 holds for house prices, at least the Express were, this time, reporting someone's genuine views on the issue.