Government modelling not proof of vaccine ‘genocide’

24 June 2021
What was claimed

A government document showing that 60-70% of Covid deaths over the summer will be among the vaccinated is proof that vaccines are intended for genocide.

Our verdict

False. This reflects the fact that the majority of elderly and vulnerable people will have been vaccinated, and the number of those for whom the vaccine was ineffective will be larger than the number who are not vaccinated.

A message being shared on WhatsApp claims that a government document is “proof for anybody that the vaccines are intended for genocide”, as it shows the government expected most hospitalisations and cases to occur in summer 2021 would occur among fully-vaccinated people. 

The message is flagged as “forwarded many times” indicating it has been forwarded on at least five times since it was written by its original sender, and we’ve written about the claim before. Screenshots of the message have also been shared on Facebook.

The statements in the document in question are not proof the vaccines are intended for genocide. They note that vaccinations were prioritised for the elderly and the vulnerable who are the most likely to be double vaccinated by summer 2021. 

These are also the people who are most at risk from Covid-19, and so are likely to make up a considerable number of any Covid-related deaths.  

The document, from one of the government’s scientific subgroups, summarises models of the roadmap out of lockdown as of 31 March 2021. 

It says that all scenarios from the three groups whose models were considered (Imperial College London, Warwick University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) would lead to a “distinct third wave” of Covid-19 and said: “The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively.”

It later gives an example to explain. It says that it expects 95% of over-50s to be double vaccinated, and 10% of those will not be protected against death because the vaccines are not 100% effective. 

That would mean 9.5% of over-50s had been vaccinated but would not be protected. Meanwhile the 5% who were not vaccinated would not be protected.

So you would expect to see more deaths among vaccinated people than unvaccinated people, but this isn’t because vaccines don’t work or are harmful, but just because so many people are vaccinated.  

You could, similarly, note that most people who die in car crashes were wearing their seatbelts. This is not because seatbelts are harmful, but because the vast majority of passengers wear seatbelts. 

The risk of dying in a car accident is much lower if you are wearing your seatbelt than if you are not. The risk of dying of Covid-19 is much lower if you are vaccinated than if you are not. 

This article is part of our work fact checking potentially false pictures, videos and stories on Facebook. You can read more about this—and find out how to report Facebook content—here. For the purposes of that scheme, we’ve rated this claim as partly false because while the SPI-M-O paper does say this, this is not an indication that vaccines are harmful or intended for genocide, but a reflection of the fact that most vulnerable people are vaccinated.

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