What does the pledge mean? 

There are two main sets of statistics that give us an idea of how many new homes are being built. ‘Net additional dwellings’ measures the change in overall housing stock and includes new build houses, as well as conversions, demolitions and changes of use, while ‘indicators of new supply’ gives an idea of how many new homes are being started and completed. 

When we asked the government which measure this pledge referred to, it said it was “aiming to deliver 1.5 million net new dwellings over the next five years”, and pointed us towards data for net additional dwellings. 

The government also confirmed this was the measure it was using to the BBC in August 2024, despite the minister for housing, Matthew Pennycook, previously suggesting the target referred to new starts.

In October 2024, Mr Pennycook confirmed to Parliament that the target refers only to England. Housing is a matter for devolved governments. 

So, the government has given itself until no later than August 2029, the latest the next general election can be held, for 1.5 million “net additional dwellings” to be added to England’s housing stock. 

At Full Fact, we’ve often seen contrasting claims about how many houses have been built in recent years, as there are lots of different ways housing data can be summarised—for instance, statistics can be seasonally adjusted or unadjusted, or quarterly or annual, and what they’re measuring can also vary. So we think it’s important to be clear from the outset about what metric this pledge refers to. 

What progress has been made?

It’s too early to say how the government is doing on this pledge, as we don’t yet know how many new homes have been built under Labour. As noted above, the government is using ‘net additional dwelling’ statistics, which are usually released every November and refer to the previous financial year, so we don’t expect to have data which covers any of Labour’s first year in office until November 2025.

It’s also worth noting that the work of building or converting some of the homes completed in the current financial year, 2024/25, will have begun under the previous Conservative government. 

‘Indicators of new supply’ statistics are published quarterly, but we don’t yet have figures from those relating to Labour’s time in office either. The most recent published data covers April to June 2024, with the next set of data expected to be published in January 2025. 

While we are still awaiting data on the government’s progress, there has been speculation that the target will be very hard to meet.

Following the government’s Autumn Budget in October 2024, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast the number of net additional dwellings over this parliament would total 1.3 million, though noted that this didn’t take into account changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, which it said may affect its prediction. 

The head of housing and planning policy at the National Federation of Builders told the i in November 2024 that there is “no chance” the 1.5 million-home target will be met within the five-year parliamentary term. 

Nevertheless, the government’s “Plan for Change”, launched on 5 December 2024, included “building 1.5 million homes in England” as one of the government’s “milestones”—targets it wants to achieve by the end of this parliament.