What does the pledge mean?

Net migration refers to the difference between the numbers of people coming to the UK to live (immigration), compared to the numbers of people leaving the UK to live elsewhere (emigration).

When net migration is positive—meaning more people are immigrating than emigrating—this adds to the UK’s population, which the latest data estimates was around 68 million people in mid-2023.

Estimates of long-term international migration are published twice a year by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). A ‘long-term international migrant’ is defined as someone who has moved country of residence for a period of at least 12 months, so these figures exclude those entering the UK for a short period of time, such as workers on a six-month seasonal worker visa, students enrolled for courses of less than a year, and visitors who require a visa.

Estimates are currently produced using a combination of data sources, including border and visa data, travel information, and tax data, though it’s worth noting that this method is relatively new, and currently still in development. Net migration estimates are currently published with a roughly five-month lag, and are subject to revision as more data becomes available and as methods improve.

Labour’s manifesto did not set a specific target level to reduce net migration to, nor a specific timeframe over which this reduction would be measured. But in May 2025, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he wanted to reduce net migration “significantly” by the end of the parliament, without committing to a specific figure.

We have asked the Home Office for clarification on this and will update this article if we get a response.

What progress has been made?

We’re currently rating this pledge as “wait and see”, as we don’t yet have data for the first year of the Labour government.

The ONS estimates that net migration was 739,000 in the year ending June 2024, before the Labour government came to office—a decrease of about 18% from the record high of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023.

Provisional data for the year ending December 2024—–broadly covering Labour’s first six months in office, as well as the preceding six months under the last Conservative government—–estimated net migration decreased by almost 50% to 431,000, from 860,000 in the year to December 2023.

The ONS said this may be partly due to immigration rule changes implemented by the previous Conservative government at the start of 2024, as well as an increase in long-term emigration, in particular among people who arrived in the UK on study visas.

We asked the ONS if it had a scheduled date for the release of statistics for the year ending June 2025—–which would broadly cover Labour’s first year in office—–but were told a date had not yet been set.

However, these annual figures covering the year to June are typically released every November.

In May 2025 the Labour government released an immigration white paper which proposes eight key changes to immigration rules.

These include an end to international recruitment of care workers, stricter English language requirements on a range of immigration routes, and reducing the number of occupations eligible for a Skilled Worker visa.

A government assessment of these changes estimates that they could reduce immigration to the UK by up to around 100,000 a year, although it stresses this is only indicative, as it relies on a number of assumptions about behavioural changes.

However, it is too soon to say how the government’s current and proposed policies will impact net migration.

It’s also worth noting that ONS projections published in January 2025 suggested that net migration is likely to fall from current levels to around 340,000 a year by mid-2028 onwards—indicating net migration may decrease even without any policy changes implemented by the government.