What does the pledge mean?

Net migration refers to the difference between the numbers of people coming to the UK to live (immigration), compared to the numbers of people leaving the UK to live elsewhere (emigration).

When net migration is positive—meaning more people are immigrating than emigrating—this adds to the UK’s population, which the latest data estimates was around 68 million people in mid-2023.

Estimates of long-term international migration are published twice a year by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). A ‘long-term international migrant’ is defined as someone who has moved country of residence for a period of at least 12 months, so these figures exclude those entering the UK for a short period of time, such as workers on a six-month seasonal worker visa, students enrolled for courses of less than a year, and visitors who require a visa.

Estimates are currently produced using a combination of data sources, including border and visa data, travel information, and tax data, though it’s worth noting that this method is relatively new, and currently still in development. Net migration estimates are currently published with a roughly five-month lag, and are subject to revision as more data becomes available and as methods improve.

Labour’s manifesto did not set a specific target level to reduce net migration to, nor a specific timeframe over which this reduction would be measured. But in May 2025, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he wanted to reduce net migration “significantly” by the end of the parliament, without committing to a specific figure.

We have asked the Home Office for clarification on this and will update this article if we get a response.

What progress has been made?

ONS data published in November 2025 shows net migration was provisionally estimated to be 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, down 68.6% from 649,000 the year before (though provisional figures may be revised at a later date). As a result, we’re rating Labour’s pledge to reduce net migration as “appears on track”.

Immigration was estimated to be 898,000, a decrease of 30.9% from 1,299,000 in the year ending June 24, while over the same period emigration is estimated to have increased by 6.6%, from 650,000 to 693,000.

The ONS said the fall in estimated net migration was “driven by fewer non-EU+ nationals arriving for work- and study-related reasons and a continued, gradual increase in levels of emigration”. It also said the fall in immigration “may be partly” because of immigration rule changes implemented by the previous Conservative government at the start of 2024.

The ONS reporting period for the YE ending June 25 covers five days before Labour formed its government on 5 July 2024, so while we don’t know exactly how much immigration or emigration took place over these five days, Labour were in government for 98.6% of the time covered by the latest statistics.

Since taking office the Labour government has announced a number of changes to immigration rules.

In May 2025 it released an immigration white paper which proposes eight key changes including an end to international recruitment of care workers, stricter English language requirements on a range of immigration routes, and reducing the number of occupations eligible for a Skilled Worker visa.

A government assessment of these changes estimated that they could reduce immigration to the UK by up to around 100,000 a year, although it stressed this figure was only indicative, as it relied on a number of assumptions about behavioural changes.

In November 2025, the government launched a consultation on earned settlement, as well as proposed changes to asylum and resettlement policy.

It’s too soon to say how the government’s current and proposed policies will impact net migration—though it’s worth noting that even prior to Labour unveiling these measures projections suggested net migration was already set to fall from the record levels seen in 2023.