Do 380 ‘illegal boat migrants’ live in Makerfield?

Images circulating on social media ahead of the Makerfield by-election show what appears to be a Reform UK leaflet claiming that “380 illegal boat migrants” live in the constituency. But this is not an official figure, and isn’t reliable.

We’ve asked Reform UK to confirm whether the leaflet pictured, which bears the party’s branding, has been distributed by the party—we’ve not yet had a response, but will update this fact check if we hear back. At least two different images showing the leaflet have been shared online, by a Reform councillor and other social media users.

As we’ve had no response from Reform at the time of writing, we also can’t say for sure what the source is for the “380 illegal boat migrants” figure. But from what we’ve seen previously, it appears to be a broad estimate based on data that shows the number of asylum seekers currently receiving support from the government living in each local authority.

Reform has previously confirmed it produced a similar leaflet for the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, which we fact checked at the time, and when we used the same methodology the party told us it used to produce that leaflet, we were able to match the 380 figure on the Makerfield leaflet.

There’s no reliable data showing the exact number of small boat arrivals living in each parliamentary constituency.

Where does the 380 figure come from?

The Makerfield parliamentary constituency falls entirely within the area covered by Wigan Council.

The latest figures show that as of 31 March 2026 a total of 1,188 asylum seekers were receiving support from the government in this local authority.

The vast majority of these were being housed by the government, though 10 received ‘subsistence only’ support (meaning they have sourced their own accommodation).

Eight of Wigan Council’s 25 electoral wards (or 32%) are located wholly in the Makerfield constituency.

This percentage appears to have been applied to the total number of asylum seekers supported by Wigan Council (assuming the figure was calculated in the same way as the estimate in Gorton and Denton). If 32% of the 1,188 asylum seekers supported by Wigan Council are in the Makerfield constituency, that works out at 380.

This isn’t a reliable figure

As we explained when we wrote about the Gorton and Denton estimate there are several issues with claiming that a figure calculated this way shows the number of “illegal boat migrants” living in a given constituency.

Firstly, it assumes asylum seekers are spread out evenly across every ward in each local authority—we don’t know if this is actually the case, so this figure can only be illustrative.

This figure also refers specifically to people with open asylum cases who are receiving support from the government. We don’t know how many of these asylum seekers arrived via small boat crossing—some may have arrived via other irregular routes (for example, in the back of a lorry) while others may have arrived on a valid visa and gone on to claim asylum.

Official statistics show that in the year ending March 2026 roughly two-fifths of asylum seekers in the UK arrived via small boat crossing, although we don’t know if the same proportions apply to asylum seekers receiving government support.

We also don’t know how many people may be currently living in the constituency who arrived by small boat crossing but are not receiving asylum support from the government (for example, those who have subsequently had their asylum application approved).